Hawks vs Pelicans NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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08 February 2023

Hawks vs Pelicans NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

New Orleans finally broke its losing skid and is refinding its footing. Against an Atlanta team that struggles to defend inside, our NBA picks for the Hawks vs. Pelicans expect Jonas Valanciunas to go to work.

The New Orleans Pelicans will look to extend a two-game winning streak as they visit the up-and-down Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night.

Atlanta (27-27) has been the definition of an average team this year, hovering around .500 the entire season. New Orleans (28-27) has found an offensive spark over its last two games to bounce back from what had been a 10-team losing streak.

The Pelicans are scoring now despite missing some of their top stars, and will look to take advantage of a shaky Atlanta interior on Tuesday. We’ll break down how that might play out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Pelicans on February 7.

Hawks vs Pelicans best odds

Hawks vs Pelicans picks and predictions

The Pelicans have been without leading scorer Zion Williamson for over a month, and played without both Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas on Sunday against the Kings. Yet, despite not having three of their top four scorers available, they put up a season-high 136 points just one day after scoring 131 in a win over the Lakers.

For a team that has struggled without Williamson, those two wins were huge. It seems that New Orleans has found a way to ignite its offense by using its depth of weapons and may be moving to a faster-paced, higher-scoring style in an effort to change its fortunes following the long losing streak.

Valanciunas is an important part of that plan. The veteran center averages 14.6 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, and looks healthy for Tuesday’s game after sitting out Sunday to rest a quad injury on a back-to-back. In fact, Valanciunas has been the most reliable player of all for the Pelicans, starting in 54 of their 55 games this year.

Typically, Valanciunas still plays third fiddle behind Ingram and CJ McCollum on most nights, at least when it comes to scoring. However, he may find more opportunities to take the lead on the offensive end against the Hawks.

Atlanta is having a difficult time dealing with big post players this season. As a whole, the Hawks are struggling a big with defensive efficiency, ranking 21st in the NBA in points per possession allowed. But they are particularly challenged in the paint, where they give up 53.1 points per game, the fifth-worst in the league.

The main issue is that Clint Capela isn’t an elite defender anymore. The center still grabs his share of rebounds (11.5 per game) and blocks some shots (1.2 per game), and the Hawks lean on him as their defensive anchor. But that means he’s asked to switch on guards and move around the court, and he doesn’t seem to have the explosiveness that allows him to do this and still protect the paint at an elite level.

With New Orleans playing a new offense-first style at the moment, and Valanciunas in a position to get some easy post buckets against the Atlanta defense, I’m targeting his points prop tonight.

Most books have the number set at just 14.5, which is right at Valanciunas’ season average. I think he’ll go above that given the matchup, so I’m taking the Over at nearly even money.

My best bet: Jonas Valanciunas Over 14.5 points (-104)

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Hawks vs Pelicans spread analysis

New Orleans opened tonight’s game as a 2.5-point favorite. The action has pushed the spread towards Atlanta, however, and the most common line is now Pelicans -1.

Both teams have struggled against the spread this year, with the Hawks going 24-30 ATS while New Orleans is 26-29. However, the Pelicans have covered in each of their last two wins, while Atlanta has covered in three of its last four games.

One big question mark hung over this game early: Would Trae Young be playing? Early on Tuesday, the Hawks took Young off the injury report after he had missed Saturday’s game due to a non-COVID illness. Young’s return is excellent news for Atlanta, as he leads the team with 27 points and 9.9 assists per game.

The Hawks are definitely a better team with Young in the lineup, particularly on the offensive end. While the Pelicans have home-court advantage tonight, I’m not sure their winning streak continues against an Atlanta team that is basically at full strength. I’m taking the Hawks, and grabbing one of the +1.5 lines I can still find, though the moneyline at -105 isn’t a terrible bet either.

Hawks vs Pelicans Over/Under analysis

The total for tonight’s matchup opened at 234.5. With Young in the lineup, that number has jumped up even higher, with the consensus Over/Under is now at 237 points.

I’ve already talked about how New Orleans seems to be moving to an offense-first style after its extended losing streak. Given that this approach has worked two nights in a row, I’m expecting it sticks with this plan against the Hawks on Tuesday.

Atlanta won’t have an issue with that. The Hawks are averaging 116.3 points per game, and have scored at least 130 points in four of their last 10 games. They played to a total of 236 without Young in the lineup on Saturday against the Nuggets and should be able to do more on the offensive end tonight.

New Orleans has played two shootouts in a row, to totals of 257 and 240. Now that the Pels are at home, against another team that enjoys running the floor, I see no reason for that production to slow down tonight.

Even with the number rising, I’m still on the Over here, though I’d get cautious if the total got all the way up to the 240 range.