Hawks vs. Suns prediction: Phoenix starting to trend up as injury situation improves

We have a Hawks vs. Suns prediction as Atlanta seeks to snap a two-game losing streak. The Hawks have just one win in their past five games as they’ve dropped to the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Atlanta is now 3.5 games out of a top-six spot that would keep them out of the playoff play-in tournament.

If we turn to the Suns, they’re playing much better lately after getting some key players back from injuries. And while Devin Booker is still sidelined with a groin injury, Chris Paul remains a crucial cog in his absence.

In this preview, I’ll share why the short-handed Suns should have the edge against the Hawks on Wednesday night.

Spread: ATL +1.5 (-112) vs. PHX -1.5 (-108)

Moneyline: ATL (+100) vs. PHX (-118)

Total: Over 229.5 (-110) | Under 229.5 (-110)

Suns -1.5

Although this matchup features two teams separated by 1.5 games in wins and losses, one can’t help but be impressed with how the Suns have fought through a rash of injuries.

For example, Phoenix’s two best players have each missed more than 20 games this season. In contrast, Atlanta has avoided lengthy injury spells to their star players.

The Hawks can be a very frustrating team when you consider the quality of offensive weapons they have. According to TeamRankings, Atlanta is 12th in offensive efficiency with 110.9 points per 100 possessions.

However, it’s been challenging for head coach Nate McMillan to get his star players to give the same effort on the defensive end as the Hawks rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.5 points per 100 possessions.

But perhaps the most significant criticism you can levy on this team is how they perform in “clutch” moments when the scoring margin is within five points with five or fewer minutes left in a game.

In these spots, Atlanta’s net rating of -14.6 is the fourth-worst in the league, according to NBA.com.

The three teams below the Hawks have an average win-loss record that’s 20 games below .500.

As for the Suns, there’s much more upside with this team that has a legitimate chance to climb up the standings in the Western Conference.

Although Phoenix is currently the seventh seed, It’s just one game behind the Clippers, who occupy the fourth seed.

The Suns are also the second unluckiest team in the league, according to TeamRankings.

ESPN’s Relative % Index projects Phoenix (27-25) should be closer to a 29-win team based on its expected win percentage (. 554).

I love this matchup for the Suns, as they’re coming off back-to-back wins and back-to-back covers against the spread (ATS).

Our Action Labs database shows that the Suns are on a 13-2 ATS run (+10.15 units) in this spot. This angle is also on a 6-0 ATS run when the Suns are no higher than a two-point favorite on the opening spread.

My model makes Phoenix closer to a four-point choice, giving me a sufficient edge with the current line at -1.5.