Heat vs. Bucks Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Jimmy Buckets Stay Hot in Milwaukee?

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26 April 2023

Heat vs. Bucks Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Jimmy Buckets Stay Hot in Milwaukee?

The Milwaukee Bucks try to get back on track at home with a healthy team, while the Miami Heatwill look to ride Jimmy Butler’s hot hand to an improbable first-round upset. Read on for our Heat vs. Bucks prediction based on the best NBA odds.

As the No. 8 seed, the Miami Heat werebig underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks, but a Game 1 injury to GiannisAntetokounmpo drastically shifted the direction of this first-round series.

Antetokounmpo missed Games 2 and 3, which the teams split.He went for a triple-double in his Game 5 return, but Butlerput the Heat on his back to help deliver a come-from-behind victory and 3-1series lead.

With Antetokounmpo healthy at home, can Milwaukee keep its championshipaspirations alive?

Here is our best Heat vs. Bucksprediction (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. Bucks prediction

Jimmy Butler Over29.5 points (-106 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Down 11 points heading into the fourthquarter, the Heat completed an epic comeback to take a 3-1 series leadMonday. Butler scored 21 points over the final eight minutes of the game and finishedwith a Heat playoff record 56 points. Though Jon Metler believes Butler will go Under an even lower point total in his NBA best bets, I believe he'll score at least 30.

Through four games, Jimmy Buckets hasaveraged 36.5 points, with 30 points in each of his last two games. Going backto the regular season, he’s scored at least 30 points in four of five contests.Counting the regular season and playoffs, Butler has averaged 29.3 pointsacross eight games against Milwaukee, including 28.8 points per game at FiservForum. If you exclude Butler’s 56-point performance and his 16-point effort on Jan.14, he’s averaged 27 against the Bucks.

Butler’s hot streak isn’t just a recenttrend, either. He scored 22.9 points per game in the regular season overall (second-most of his career) and upped it to 25.6 per game in 22 contests post-All-Starbreak with six 30-point performances.

The Bucks' defense isn’t a unit to fearright now. Since March 1, the Bucks allowed 119.7 points per game (sixth-most)overall and 118 points per game at home (eighth-most). The Heat are huge underdogson the road, and the Bucks should come out playing with a level of urgency anddesperation, leading to a close contest.

Expect Butler - who leads the NBA in40-point playoff games over the last two seasons with five - to shoulder theoffense yet again in a closeout contest. In two closeout games in 2022, hescored 35 against Boston and 32 against Philly, and he’ll add another30-pointer Wednesday.

Heat vs. Bucks best odds

Caesars (-106)

The odds vary among our best sportsbooks,with FanDuel and PointsBet offering this prop with shorter odds than thestandard -110. BetMGM and DraftKings offer it at -110, but we can get thelongest odds at Caesars without having to sell any points.

Heat vs. Bucks odds

Heat vs. Bucks odds analysis

Despite losing each of the last two gamesand three of four in this series, the Bucks are heavy favorites at home, andthe opening 11.5-point spread hasn’t moved. Bettors are eying the Heat tocover, with 66% of wagers placed on that outcome. Milwaukee was 5-10 ATS whenfavored by double-digit points in the regular season, while Miami was 5-2 ATSwhen underdogs by seven or more points.

The point total opened at 219.5, and ithas moved up a point ahead of tip-off. Bettors have wagered 66% of tickets onthe Over. Miami has hit the Over in each of its last four, and Milwaukee hashit the Over in each of its last six. Neither defense has been particularlyeffective as of late, and the teams have combined to score 237.5 points pergame in this series.