Heisman March: Washington's Michael Penix Jr. overtakes USC's Caleb Williams as betting favorite

Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams had his shakiest performance of the season in USC’s 43-41 win over Arizona last Saturday. The win cost the Trojans in the Associated Press poll where they now sit at No. 10 after a rankings peak of No. 5 three games ago. Williams also lost ground as a Heisman betting favorite after leapfrogging past Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. the week prior.

Williams went 30-of-40 (.750) for 403 yards and six touchdown passes with one interception against Colorado. His six touchdown passes tied his single game career-high (he also threw six against Texas Tech in 2021). He became the first FBS player in the last 25 years to throw for 6 passing touchdowns in a game for multiple schools. That earned him Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Against Arizona,Williams went 14-of-25 for 219 yards with one touchdown pass. He also rushed for 41 yards and scored three rushing touchdowns plus the game-winning two-point conversion in triple overtime. His three rushing touchdowns tied his single-game career-high. However, his completion percentage, yards per attempt and passing touchdowns were all season lows, and it cost him in the eyes of BetMGM.com.

Here are the current betting odds for the Heisman:

It’s hardly an insurmountable lead, but it’s the third consecutive week Williams and Penix have flip-flopped as favorites. Interestingly, Penix and Williams had their least impressive performances against a common opponent (Arizona) in consecutive weeks. Both the Washington quarterback and Nix gained ground by not playing due to an open date the past week.

With new data on Williams’ season, let’s take a look at each quarterback’s statistical profile:

Williams has dipped below both Penix and Nix in completion percentage, yards per attempt and on third down. He’s got a healthy lead in touchdown passes and he’s also been more prolific as a runner. Williams has six touchdown runs in addition to the passes while Nix has just one and Penix has none.

Williams is currently No. 1 in the nation in passing efficiency (206.4), points responsible for (172), points responsible for per game (28.7) and passing touchdowns (22). He’s also No. 7 in the nation in total offense (324.3), No. 8 in the nation in passing yards (1,808) and No. 9 in the nation in passing yards per completion (15.31).

Let’s take a look at how Pro Football Focus sees the betting favorites:

Two of the three frontrunners had their best games against Stanford with Penix still to play the Cardinal. Two have also had their lowest-graded performances against the Wildcats. The Arizona game was clearly costly for Williams. He’s dipped below his competitors and the rarefied air of the 90.0 PFF tier.

This Week:

Two monster games stand as potential separators for the three betting favorites. Williams gets to take his act on the road to the biggest stage in the sport. He leads No. 10 USC into South Bend for a primetime showdown with No. 21 Notre Dame in the 94th meeting of the greatest intersectional rivalry in college football. It will be shown live nationally on NBC. There is no bigger Heisman showcase stage than a game against Notre Dame.

Williams will know what transpired between No. 7 Washington and No. 8 Oregon by the time he takes the field Saturday night. The undefeated Ducks travel to Montlake to play the undefeated Huskies in another showcase game. All three quarterbacks have a legitimate chance to take the pole position as a Heisman betting favorite based on what each player does in those games.