Here are 3 reasons to fear Fierceness after Juvenile win

Because of a poor effort over slop, Fierceness went into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last weekend as the forgotten Todd Pletcher entry with generous odds of 16-1 at post time, while his more popular stablemate Locked went off as the 2-1 favorite off his two wins.

Bettors who kept their faith in Fierceness ended up winning. In contrast, Locked did not hit his best stride until late and could finish only third.

Fierceness not only won the Juvenile, he dominated the field. As the Kentucky Derby trail moves into the winter, there were three strong points about Fierceness’ win to keep in mind for when he continues down this path.

First of all, Fierceness took home the prize in a fast time for the 1 1/16-mile distance. The son of City of Light won the Juvenile in 1:41.90. To put that time in perspective, Just F Y I won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies two races earlier on the card with a time of 1:44.58.

Granted, Fierceness was pressing the pace in the Juvenile through slower fractions than the ones Just F Y I faced as a tracker in the Juvenile Fillies, and he likely came into the stretch with more energy. But the two-second-plus difference leaves no doubt that Fierceness ran significantly better than the fillies no matter that the pace scenarios were different. 

The second strong point about Fierceness's Juvenile win is that he beat accomplished and talented 2-year-olds by impressive margins.

For example, Fierceness beat Muth in second by 6 1/4 lengths. Before the Breeders’ Cup, Muth had won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita by a clear margin in a strong manner for the experienced trainer Bob Baffert.

Behind Muth in second were other talented 2-year-olds, including Locked in third and Timberlake in fourth. Before competing in the Breeders' Cup, Locked overcame a wide trip to take home the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in his final prep race, and Timberlake won the Champagne Stakes (G1) in impressive fashion at Aqueduct. 

In that same Champagne Stakes, Fierceness had run a disappointing seventh by 20 1/4 lengths after traveling wide over the slop. But on a fast track with a better trip, Fierceness beat Timberlake by eight lengths.

As a last point to prove the quality of Fierceness's Juvenile win, the final speed figures give another clue that Fierceness ran a fast race. 

Fierceness ended up with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure and 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his Juvenile win. Those two figures roughly equal each other, plus or minus a few points when accounting for the scale difference. 

Also remember that Muth ran a 114 on TimeformUS when he won the American Pharoah, Locked posted a similar figure of 113 in his Breeders’ Futurity win and Timberlake earned a 113 as well when he took the Champagne Stakes. On paper, they were virtually the same on figures. 

Those three runners barely went forward figure-wise in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Muth did go up to a 116, but Locked went up only one point to a 114, and Timberlake received the same 113 figure from TimeformUS.

Speed figures are based on final time. For handicappers who do not make figures, they can look at different clues to get a feeling for the reliability of the numbers. For example, it works as a great sign for a standout figure when all the past performance brands agree with other.

Fierceness stands out with his 105 Beyer and 122 on TimeformUS, and those numbers on the two brands seem accurate given his significantly faster time relative to the Juvenile Fillies and how his Beyer and TimeformUS figure match each other when accounting for the scale. 

In addition, it makes sense that a horse ran a fast race on speed figures if he beat a good group of runners. As spelled out earlier, Fierceness beat an accomplished field by a clear margin, and that supports the fast final time he earned and the high speed figures given by Beyer and TimeformUS.

Fierceness has the potential to become a star for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Repole Stable. He might even handle a wet track eventually as his career unfolds. Maybe he just needed the wet experience in the Champagne.

With all that said, the odds on Fierceness will not seem attractive for betting. Wherever Fierceness runs next, bettors might want to just watch him and enjoy a promising 2-year-old with limitless potential to move forward.