Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe

Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, it might seem as if trainer Tim Yakteen has the field surrounded with five entries, partially thanks to trainer Bob Baffert. But there are other viable contenders not from the Yakteen barn, and one of them stands out enough to take a shot on him against the Yakteen five.

The Yakteen quintuplet is led by National Treasure and Hejazi. National Treasure posted a 113 on TimeformUS when finishing third in the Sham Stakes (G3) at the beginning of January, and Hejazi earned a 113 when breaking his maiden locally on Jan. 15 in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint.  

Yakteen's other entries are Practical Move, Fort Bragg and Mr Fisk, who are not as fast on the figure scale using TimeformUS.

As for the non-Yakteen contenders, both Geaux Rocket Ride and Skinner show TimeformUS Speed Figures above 110 in their last starts, which makes them competitive with National Treasure and Hejazi in terms of figures.  

In the case of Geaux Rocket Ride, he earned a 115 on TimeformUS when he won at first asking in a local six-furlong maiden sprint on Jan. 29. Geaux Rocket Ride withstood early pressure in the opening quarter before opening up by two lengths at the half-mile pole and drawing clear by 5 3/4 lengths.

The runner-up Sonoran backed up the quality of the race by returning to break his maiden on Feb. 20 by 7 1/4 lengths in another local maiden sprint. Also, trainer Richard Mandella typically does not spot his horses in an aggressive manner, yet he heads straight to a Grade 2 race here with an inexperienced colt.

But there are some notable flaws with choosing Geaux Rocket Ride. As stated above, he lacks experience. More specifically, Geaux Rocket Ride shows no route or stakes races and only one career start. In addition, he faces a tricky pace scenario with Hejazi likely to get hustled by Mike Smith from the gate and either steal the lead or press him hard early.

Geaux Rocket Ride could end up handling the pressure and winning on raw talent alone, but the odds appear stacked against him given his inexperience. Also, the high speed figure in his career debut may cause him to get overbet. Besides the 115 on TimeformUS, he earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, which will look attractive to the public. 

Now to discuss Skinner, who is trained by John Shirreffs. Despite winning for only the first time last month, Skinner does own graded-stakes experience thanks to getting thrown into those races as only a maiden.  

Even though Shirreffs does not typically get aggressive with his horses, last September he ran Skinner in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) as a maiden and he finished a respectable third while losing by 9 1/2 lengths to Cave Rock.

Then Skinner threw a clunker the following month in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) when he ran sixth by 28 1/2 lengths. At that point, it felt like those graded stakes races were too much, too soon for the maiden.

After enjoying shelf time following the American Pharoah, Skinner came back on Feb. 12 in a one-mile maiden special weight, where he made a wide move on the far turn to get into contention and took control in the stretch from the leader Yellow Brick, who had no response when Skinner powered by him. At this point, Skinner began to open up while running strong late.   

Skinner finished 3 1/4 lengths in front at the wire and completed the one mile in 1:36.78. The final time earned Skinner a 112 on TimeformUS, which is 12 points higher than his previous high of 100 in the Del Mar Futurity.

For those who prefer Beyer Speed Figures, Skinner also earned an impressive 95 Beyer for his maiden win. On the downside, none of the horses from the race have returned to run yet, which makes trusting any high figure harder since the also-rans did not back up the race quality yet. Nevertheless, two speed figure brands gave him big numbers. 

As for his role in the pace, Skinner runs as a closer. But in his maiden win, he came from only 4 1/4 lengths off the leader in the opening quarter before joining the leaders on the far turn to get into position. Given the fast pace brewing with Geaux Rocket Ride and Hejazi, using a closing style can work. If he avoids traffic, he can fire. 

Even though Skinner won his maiden race in a sparkling manner with a high speed figure, maybe he can offer a decent price with the five Yakteen runners entered. Many bettors will gravitate toward the Yakteen entries because they know Baffert trained four of them.

Given all the factors above, Skinner is the right choice. If possible, still watch the board and make sure he does not get overbet. Although his last race indicates a bright future, Skinner is still only maiden winner. With that said, he is an interesting horse to bet with the right odds.