Hornets vs 76ers odds, picks, predictions: Bet on Charlotte to cover on road
Despite posting losses in five of their last six games, the 76ers return home from a three-game road trip as near-double-digit favorites over the Hornets on Saturday night – marking just the second time the Sixers have been favored in their last seven games.
The last time the 76ers were favored by double digits was their most recent meeting with Charlotte on March 1, which resulted in a 121-114 home victory for the Sixers, who failed to cover as 12-point favorites.
When Joel Embiid is healthy and in the lineup, the 76ers are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. That’s exactly what they were for the first half of this season, posting a 29-14 record with Embiid, while ranking second in the NBA in net rating, behind only Boston.
Without him, they look like one of the worst teams in the league. They’ve gone 7-13 since Embiid’s last game, while ranking 24th in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating during that span. The 13 losses have come by an average of 13.3 points per game.
The spread for Saturday’s matchup (76ers -9.5) appears to be priced as if Embiid was actually playing, which, of course, he is not. The best-case scenario for the Sixers is a return of their power forward the week before the playoffs begin.
They were +1800 in the preseason to win the NBA Finals. On Jan. 29, the day before Embiid suffered a knee injury, that number was reduced to +1200. At the time, only the Celtics, Nuggets, Bucks and Clippers had better odds.
Going into Saturday night, BetMGM has them listed at +4000, and some might argue that is wildly optimistic considering the 76ers are playing an awful brand of basketball and appear headed for a post-season play-in game.
Over the last month and a half, Philadelphia seems lost, showing how heavily they relied on Embiid at both ends of the floor.
Not only have the Sixers failed to protect the rim without the reigning MVP, but they also haven’t been able to generate much offense.
The raw numbers are ugly. The Sixers have scored fewer than 100 points in six of their last 13 games, and fewer than 105 points in nine of their last 13.
Philly doesn’t deserve to be favored by double digits over anybody right now – even the 17-49 Hornets.
Charlotte has actually played some of its best basketball since the trade deadline. Seven of the Hornets’ 17 wins have come since Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington were shipped out and replaced by Seth Curry, Grant Williams, Tre Mann and Davis Bertans.
While they continue to dwell at 29th in offensive rating, their defense has improved by leaps and bounds. Over their last 15 games, the Hornets rank fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, holding opponents to an average of 105.4 points per game.
It’s still a far cry from where they would like to be, but at least they are playing hard and trending in the right direction.
I’ll take the points with Charlotte at the Wells Fargo Center on Saturday night.
Pick: Hornets +9.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
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