Horse racing tips for Goodwood on Thursday

At-a-glance guide

1.50 Coral Kincsem Handicap

Timeform top-rated: Crack Shot (2 lb clear)

Draw Bias: Favours low

Pace Forecast: Extreme

Specific Pace Hint: The suspicion the gallop will be end to end with no let up should be a big positive for COVERDALE and a negative for CRACK SHOT.

Individual Price Hint: THEORYOFEVERYTHING can be expected to be held up so in view of the projected pace forecast seems likely to trade a fair bit higher than Betfair SP as he has done before when successful.

2.25 Markel Richmond Stakes

Timeform top-rated: Jasour (2 lb clear)

Draw Bias: N/A

Pace Forecast: Very strong

Specific Pace Hint : N/A

Individual Price Hint : N/A

3.00 John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes

Timeform top-rated: Espionage (1 lb clear)

Draw Bias: N/A

Pace Forecast: Weak

Specific Pace Hint : The probability of a steady pace is hard to escape from here and that isn’t good news for ARTISTIC STAR in contrast to ESPIONAGE.

Individual Price Hint : ESPIONAGE traded at least twice his starting Betfair SP when scoring on his most recent outing.

3.35 Qatar Nassau Stakes

Timeform top-rated: Nashwa (6 lb clear)

Draw Bias: N/A

Pace Forecast: Very weak

Specific Pace Hint : The pace scenario here will probably be irrelevant in view of the chance NASHWA has.

Individual Price Hint : NASHWA is well up there on the figures but has been beaten once before when trading at odds on in-running.

4.10 Jaeger-Lecoultre Nursery Handicap

Timeform top-rated: Grays Inn (8 lb clear)

Draw Bias: Against high

Pace Forecast: Extreme

Specific Pace Hint : However the race develops shouldn’t inconvenience GRAY'S INN who is sure to command plenty of support.

Individual Price Hint : GRAY'S INN has the form in the book she has traded on average in-running at 45.00% of her Betfair SP during her career to date.

4.45 Buccellati Handicap

Timeform top-rated: Isle of Jura (8 lb clear)

Draw Bias: Strongly favours low

Pace Forecast: Strong

Specific Pace Hint : It shouldn't matter what shape this race takes as ISLE OF JURA will probably be good enough to overcome any pace scenario.

Individual Price Hint : ISLE OF JURA looks to have a good chance he has traded on average in-running at 18.00% of his Betfair SP during his career to date.

5.20 Tatler British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes

Timeform top-rated: Ornellaia (1 lb clear)

Draw Bias: Against high

Pace Forecast: Even

Specific Pace Hint : Prominent racers are usually favoured here and even a pace that isn’t strong will assist ORNELLAIA at the probable expense of INBETWEENUS.

Individual Price Hint : N/A

5.55 World Pool Handicap

Timeform top-rated: Democracy Dilemma (1 lb clear)

Draw Bias: Favours mid

Pace Forecast: Very strong

Specific Pace Hint : The suspicion the pace will be very strongly contested seems likely to reduce the chances of DEMOCRACY DILEMMA significantly in favour of ESTATE.

Individual Price Hint : ESTATE touched an in-running high at least twice his starting Betfair SP when successful last time.

Graeme North Timefigure tip

Silver Sword (each-way) - 1:50 Goodwood

Unlike likely favourite Perfuse who drops down in trip, the clock-leading Silver Sword promises to be suited by the step back up to a mile and a quarter and looks worth backing each-way at 12/1 with four places available.

His price is no doubt influenced to a degree by trainer Dylan Cunha and rider Greg Cheyne being ‘unfamiliar’ names, but the former has made a big impression albeit with a small number of horses since coming over from South Africa while top South African rider Cheyne, now assistant to William Haggas, is 6-29 this year including 2-2 on Silver Sword.

A second place at Epsom behind subsequent Hampton Court fourth Torito is good form, and he then went and hacked up last time in a Sunday Series handicap over Pontefract’s stiff mile. He’s up 7lb here, but he’s well berthed inside Perfuse and his pedigree tells me he’s unlikely to be inconvenienced by soft ground as his dam twice finished place here on soft or heavy ground.

The Ratings Choice

Gray's Inn – 4:10 Goodwood

Rated fully 8 lb clear of her nearest rival on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, Jack Channon’s filly Gray’s Inn is potentially very well treated for her return to nursery company.

Proven on soft ground from winning a nursery at Chester earlier in July when showing a good attitude by battling back to win after being headed, she ran well upped in grade to a listed race at Sandown last week. Although she never posed a threat to the principals, she kept on inside the final furlong to finish just under four lengths fourth to Shuwari.

A filly who’s thrived for her current yard after being picked up out of a seller at Musselburgh, Gray’s Inn can take advantage of some lenient handicapping to register her third win here.

The Big Improver

Isle of Jura – 4:45 Goodwood

There’s a big field for this mile handicap but none of these three-year-olds boasts quite such a progressive profile as George Scott’s gelding Isle of Jura. A Godolphin cast-off who’s related to a number of at least smart performers, Isle of Jura could be in the same bracket himself soon given his current rate of progress in handicaps.

He made a mockery of his opening mark when making an impressive winning debut in handicaps at Newbury last month, quickening around four or five lengths clear before being heavily eased close home. Isle of Jura was hit with a 12 lb rise for that win but that wasn’t enough to prevent him following up at Newmarket last Saturday where he won in very similar style under the burden of 10-7 and was value for a lot more than his winning margin of a length and three quarters over Hey Lyla.

Under a 6 lb penalty for his latest success, Isle of Jura still looks ahead of the handicapper and can complete a quick hat-trick from his handy low draw.

The Timeform Flag

Espionage – 3:00 Goodwood

Top Rated, Horse In Focus, Trainer In Form

Trained by Aidan O’Brien and top rated in the Gordon Stakes, St Leger entry Espionage has plenty going for him as he seeks to give his trainer a third win in this Group 3 contest since 2015.

An ability to handle testing conditions is likely to come in handy too, and Espionage has proven that with his close second to Proud And Regal in the Group 1 Criterium International in the mud at Saint-Cloud last October where he was caught only on the line after making the running. Out of the Ribblesdale winner Even Song, middle distances were always likely to suit Espionage this year and he proved as much on his reappearance in a listed race at Roscommon last month.

He didn’t need to improve on his two-year-old form to beat Young Ireland a length and a half last time, but was well on top at the finish, shaping as though he’ll come on again for the run and that an even stiffer test would suit, so this mile and a half on ground likely to test stamina should prove ideal.