Timefigures and sectional times
Graeme North previews day five of Goodwood from a timing perspective, highlighting his best bets.
Five handicaps, a maiden contest and just one Group race – and not even a Group 1 at that – end a Goodwood Festival that began seemingly an eternity ago, and it’s questionable whether the 20 handicaps that have made up 54% of the offering at Goodwood is several too many. Trimming a few races over the week surely wouldn’t go amiss.
One of those that might be binned is the one that kicks off Saturday’s card, the Coral Stewards’ Sprint (13:50), a consolation for those that didn’t make it into the main event, the Stewards' Cup.
As with so many consolation races these days, the race hasn’t come anywhere near close to filling, making you question whether it’s needed at all, and at the time of writing what part the draw will play is hard to call with the final race on Thursday, the five-furlong sprint won by JM Jungle, the first race of the week on the straight course where low numbers were favoured.
Many A Star, who won the race last year when just 12 took part, bids to follow up and is joint-top on time, though he’s been struggling this year. The other joint top on time is the relative youngster Zaman Jemil, who carries a penalty for his Thirsk win last time, but Thirsk sprints this season have been characterised by a stand rail bias and this looks tougher.
It’s not impossible for three-year-olds to win this race – Scorching Heat did in 207 – but I’m content to sit this one out and focus on the next race, the Coral Summer Handicap (14:25).
There are several ‘sexy’ types in this race, notably Sweet William, who comes here looking for a third win in a row for the Gosden yard, and Omniscient, a very progressive Sir Mark Prescott inmate who shaped very well in the Northumberland Plate last time and now drops back two furlongs in trip.
However, from a timefigure perspective, there’s no horse better in than He’s A Latchico, who has snuck in at the bottom of the weights. He rattled off a hat-trick in lesser company on the all weather in 2022 but is much improved this year, preceding his latest Sandown win with two wins over hurdles at Fontwell. He’s A Latchico needed that Sandown win to get in here and has taken a hit from the handicapper, but that still leaves him with a few pounds to spare on the clock, with the likelihood of better to come judged on the manner of that success upped to this trip for the first time.
Produced to lead entering the final final furlong, he drew three lengths clear, running three of the last four furlongs faster than any of his rivals, including the last which he covered 0.4 seconds faster than the next best according to Course Track. His trainer Gary Moore hasn’t had the success over the years one would have expected at the meeting given his local connections, but he struck with Novus on Thursday and can score again here. Given He’s A Latchico is by Fast Company, any further rain shouldn’t be an issue.
Free Wind is the class act in the Qatar Lillie Langtry (15:00), but she’s been kept away from soft ground all her life so can’t be regarded as a good thing, especially after a lacklustre effort at Royal Ascot last time. With neither second favourite River of Stars nor third favourite Time Lock having raced on anything softer than dead, this stamina test looks primed for an upset and soft-ground specialist and course winner Luisa Casati looks the one to be on.
She’s proved better than ever this year, following a very pleasing comeback in France, where she was in front briefly close home, with a win in a listed race here in May when she got the better of Time Lock, powering through the last two furlongs to win going away after the runner-up had led on the bridle at the two-furlong pole, earning a much bigger upgrade than the runner-up.
Time Lock finished one place ahead of Luisa Casati when the pair were fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Lancashire Oaks last time, but that was a steadily-run affair on fast ground and Course Track sectionals reveal that Luisa Casati, who was too far back as the race developed, ran by some way the fastest furlong in the race. I’d be certain that Luisa Casati will beat her old rival hands down now she finally gets the chance to tackle this trip for the first time and I’m finding it hard to keep her out of the first three.
From what I’ve read, Individualism is the apple of Charlie Johnston’s eye and, if the fledgling trainer hasn’t had a winner by the time the son of Too Darn Hot lines up for the penultimate race of the meeting, then defeat for the National Stakes and Champagne Stakes entry will round off what will have been a miserable week for the Middleham outfit.
The Johnstons have won this race twice since 2012, most notably with the subsequent high-class stayer Dee Ex Bee in 2017, and Individualism really ought not to be coming here, at least not in a maiden, given he looked the best horse in an Ayr novice last month on ground probably similar to what he will encounter here, hitting 1.2 in-running but caught late on by a previous winner.
That experience won’t have been lost on him and experience has been a common factor among the last 10 winners of this race, seven of them having had at least one previous run, but it struck me as slightly disappointing that one so highly regarded couldn’t put a Northern novice to bed in receipt of 7 lb, with neither his overall time nor sectional upgrade up to much.
Andrew Balding has won the last two editions of this race and runs two newcomers in the shape of Royal Supremacy and Celtic Warrior, but Devil’s Point made a highly satisfactory debut at Sandown in what was a fairly good time and is preferred.
David Menuisier’s youngster cost a hefty 475,000 guineas a yearling, making him the highest priced yearling offspring at auction by New Bay in 2022, and did well given his greenness at Sandown, keeping on without quite getting there after a slow start. A half-brother to a couple of useful winners, he can leave that form behind, as third-placed fellow newcomer Arabian Crown in that race did next time when returning to Sandown to get off the mark.
Recommendations
Back He’s A Latchico in the 14:25 at Goodwood at 8/1
Back Luisa Casati each-way in the 15:00 at Goodwood at 15/2
Back Devil’s Point in the 16:45 at Goodwood at 7/2
