World Series 2023 Odds: Predictions & Picks for Phillies, Braves, Dodgers and More
The MLB regular season nears its finish and we’re starting to see a more definitive landscape for the 2023 World Series odds.
The Philadelphia Phillies officially seized the top seed in the NL Wild Card on Tuesday and we’re taking a look at how they stack up to win it all for the first time since 2008.
Several teams are still jockeying for the final pair of wild card spots in both leagues. So as the last few regular season games play out, it’s wise to start pinpointing where the value lives on this list.
Let’s dive into which teams you should target and which you should fade.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
World Series Odds
Atlanta Braves: +260
Los Angeles Dodgers: +420
Baltimore Orioles: +650
Texas Rangers: +800
Tampa Bay Rays: +1200
Philadelphia Phillies: +1200
Houston Astros +1200
Toronto Blue Jays: +1800
Minnesota Twins: +1900
Milwaukee Brewers: +1900
Seattle Mariners: +2800
Arizona Diamondbacks: +4500
Chicago Cubs: +6000
Miami Marlins: +7000
Cincinnati Reds: +49000
World Series Odds Prediction & Pick
The National League presents a top-heavy bunch in contrast to the American League’s balance. It’s been musical chairs in the AL since March as we’ve perceived Tampa Bay, Houston, Baltimore and Texas as the top dog all at different stages.
I’m staying far away from Baltimore as the inexperience looms too large for fall baseball. Its success this season has been exciting, as they haven’t won the AL East in nine years and haven’t hit 100 wins in 43. But too much of this run has been on the backs of breakout stars. Kyle Bradish has been good as the Orioles emerging ace with a 2.86 ERA, but his 3.83 xERA is too big a differential as a No. 1 pitcher.
Texas is interesting and probably my favorite to win the AL pennant. Corey Seager has strung together a magical year at the plate — churning out a league-elite .623 xSLG and a .421 xwOBA. In any other season Shohei Ohtani wasn’t doing Shohei Ohtani things, Seager is a shoo-in for AL MVP.
Given the nature of the AL, it’s easy to urge towards the two battle-tested front runners in the NL.
It’s no surprise the juggernaut Atlanta Braves lineup cruising to the best record in Major League Baseball and the perennial power Los Angeles Dodgers are most’s 1a and 1b picks to win the World Series.
The Braves are the obvious safe bet and if you want to grab them while still at plus-money value, now is the time. But the best regular season record is overhyped and it’s not a common occurrence they get a ring, too.
Atlanta should have Max Fried back for the NLDS, but Charlie Morton is likely to miss the series and damage to their starting rotation was an issue last postseason.
Of course the NL MVP-favorite campaign of Ronald Acuna Jr. has been lethal among several other Braves. Acuna Jr. has a WAR of 8.1, which is ranked at third. Matt Olson is right behind him with 7.1, which is ranked fifth.
While the Braves lead baseball in almost every offensive stat category, a lot of their prowess is on home run hitting. They lead the majors by 60 with four games left, but home runs translate don’t translate well into October.
The Dodgers will make their 12th consecutive postseason appearance. They no longer have the luxury of being able to ride Clayton Kershaw’s back through October. The future Hall-of-Famer has been used carefully while nursing shoulder problems. He hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in nine starts and the postseason should be no different.
He is still posting a 2.42 ERA, but after Kershaw, the Dodgers have no one left available from their original rotation. With Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May shut down and Walker Buehler not able to return in time from their respective surgeries, Los Angeles has pivoted to a make-shift rotation spearheaded by rookie Bobby Miller and deadline acquisition Lance Lynn.
The beauty of the MLB postseason is that wild card teams can make runs. It isn’t just not about the best records or who has the highest WAR. There’s no correlation to the league’s best pitching rotation, bullpen or who becomes hot down the stretch either.
But we can look to balance and depth.
The Phillies make an interesting case as a club with experience winning the NL pennant just a season ago. What I like about them is their supporting talent providing a stable floor down the stretch. Johan Rojas has emerged as both an offensive and defensive upgrade in center field. The rookie has hit the gas pedal through the latter half of September boosting his OPS to .758.
There’s also Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh, both of which are having all-around career seasons at the plate. Bohm has reached a .770 OPS with 95 RBI knocks while Marsh is up to .823 with 109 hits. Players like this have filled some inconsistency gaps with headliners like Kyle Schwarber, who despite crushing 45 home runs, is batting .196.
What I like most about the Phillies is the even number distribution amongst their rotation. Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler are a rock-solid one-two punch and the remaining three have a WHIP of 1.41 or less. From No. 1 to No. 5, everyone is capable of carrying the Phillies deep enough into ball games.
Jeff Hoffman has been one of the most effective relievers in baseball as he boasts a 2.55 xERA and a .249 xwOBA — both of which are amongst the top five in baseball.
If you’re looking for a diamond in the rough, look no further than the Phillies at +1200 World Series odds before the Wild Card Series begins.
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