Houston vs. BYU prediction: College basketball odds, picks, bets

There’s a huge matchup in the Big 12 this week, as No. 4 Houston travels to play No. 21 BYU in Provo for some Cougar on Cougar crime. 

The Cougars are a dominant college basketball force, but they’ve surprisingly struggled on the road.

They’re 1-5 against the spread (ATS) away from home, with two outright losses in their past two true road opportunities (Iowa State, TCU). 

Meanwhile, the other Cougars have been a dominant college basketball force at home, covering 10 of 12 games at the Marriott Center. 

This is a brutal game to handicap, but I have to bet on Houston because the line is too low. 

There are plenty of converging factors in this matchup. 

BYU’s secondary-heavy, five-out zoom actions are theoretically perfect for exploiting Houston’s nationwide-best defense.

The Cougars run the nation’s most aggressive ball-screen coverage defense, blitzing every on-ball action and leaving them vulnerable to weak-side catch-and-shoot opportunities. 

Naturally, Houston is weakest against off-ball-screen and hand-off sets, two actions BYU runs the most. 

That said, any defensive weakness for Houston is relative, as these Cougars still rank above the D-I average by PPP allowed against both secondary sets (0.81 vs handoffs, 58th percentile; 0.85 vs off-ball screens, 57th percentile). 

On the other end of the court, BYU’s dribble-drive defensive metrics and defensive rebounding metrics look pristine, but I think the Cougars are critically overvalued in those two areas. 

BYU has a good defense, but these Cougars lack elite speed and agility – Texas Tech guard Pop Isaacs was too shifty for BYU in the most recent Big 12 matchup, as he generated 32 points on more than 1.00 PPP. 

Unfortunately for BYU, the same thing should happen here.

Houston has several elite athletic, shot-making guards, most notably Jamal Shead, LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp. I expect they all take advantage of BYU.

Houston’s offense is predicated upon tough shot-making from these guards, and that shot-making has failed them in hostile road environments so far. Still, the guards should be able to get to their spots on the floor and in the gaps against an overvalued BYU perimeter defense. 

Additionally, BYU ranks eighth nationally in defensive rebounding rate. But the Cougars’ defensive rebounding numbers have taken a nosedive in conference play – they rank seventh in the Big 12 in that metric. 

Even worse, 6-foot-11 stretch big man Noah Waterman missed the Texas Tech game and might be out again for Tuesday’s contest.

Waterman is an elite catch-and-shoot player (37% from 3) and the team’s best defensive rebounder (21.5% defensive rebounding rate). His absence would simultaneously hurt BYU’s five-out actions and interior presence on the boards. 

And that’s a huge problem against Houston, among the nation’s most aggressive offensive rebounding teams. The Cougars are fifth nationally in offensive rebounding rate, generating 14 second-chance points per game. 

Houston should generate good first shots and even better second-chance shots. Meanwhile, BYU should generate solid secondary actions, but I’m not convinced it’ll score at will. 

Projections agree. Our Action internal metrics project Houston as a 6.5-point road favorite against BYU, while EvanMiya projects Houston closer to a 4.5-point road favorite. 

I think the market is scared of betting Houston on the road after its past two losses, but I expect these Cougars to bounce back with a strong true road victory eventually. 

Meanwhile, I still think BYU is overvalued after an impossibly strong non-conference season. These Cougars have failed to cover in four of their past five games, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more losses pile up, especially if Waterman remains out.