How does Michigan’s drama compare? All programs aren’t like Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — To those who submitted actual football questions this week: I salute you.

For everyone else, I understand the curiosity. Michigan’s offseason has been a car wreck that people can’t look away from. I don’t have all the answers, but I’ll do my best to address your questions about the ongoing NCAA investigation, the firing of Matt Weiss and the drama surrounding Jim Harbaugh’s return.

Unlike the NCAA, the Michigan mailbag always accepts “I do not recall” as a valid answer.

How does Michigan compare to other programs you’ve covered in terms of drama? Being a fan of this team feels like watching a chaotic soap opera, but at this level maybe all teams are like this. — Jason H. 

It’s not your imagination, Jason. All teams are not like this. Other programs might have more overall drama — Auburn, LSU and Tennessee would like a word — but Michigan’s seems to have a particular flavor. Michigan is a polarizing program with a polarizing coach, which means there’s always a spotlight on Ann Arbor. Little things tend to get magnified, and Harbaugh isn’t a coach who’s going to de-escalate a situation.

Part of coaching is creating discomfort so that players learn to thrive under pressure. Harbaugh takes that philosophy to the extreme, whether he’s picking a starting quarterback, responding to NCAA allegations or negotiating a new contract. He’s betting that he has a higher tolerance for discomfort than whomever he’s competing against, and most of the time he’s right. That’s part of what makes him successful, but it doesn’t always make for smooth waters around the program.

If you’re a Michigan fan who follows the program closely, you’re probably numb to this stuff by now. Michigan fandom definitely is not for the faint of heart.

Do you think that Warde Manuel’s fractured relationship with Harbaugh, combined with other missteps in recent years, will lead to Manuel’s demise as AD? If so, what percentage would you attribute to the Harbaugh stuff versus everything else? — Ben L. in Kansas City, Mo.

Tying this back to the previous question, Harbaugh is going to have tension with anyone in a position of authority. Tension isn’t always a bad thing. What might look like a dysfunctional relationship in a different context may be part and parcel with the entire Jim Harbaugh experience.

That’s why I’m not rushing to a conclusion about Harbaugh’s relationship with his AD. The optics of Harbaugh’s return — Harbaugh calling president Santa Ono, Ono informing Manuel — is an example of what I’ve heard about the communication, or lack thereof, between Harbaugh and Manuel. That’s not ideal, but it’s not necessarily an indictment of Manuel’s abilities as an administrator.

Manuel’s handling of the situation involving hockey coach Mel Pearson is fair grounds for criticism. There are some in the Michigan orbit who feel he’s been too conservative on name, image and likeness. He wasn’t able to hold onto John Beilein or baseball coach Erik Bakich, and the hiring of Juwan Howard no longer looks like a slam dunk.

All of those things factor into an honest evaluation of Manuel’s performance. I’m guessing that’s exactly the kind of evaluation he’s going to get from Michigan’s new president. But if you take Manuel’s seven-year tenure as a whole, he’s presided over a lot of success in a job that attracts more criticism than praise. Michigan could do a lot worse.

What do you think the realistic answer is for the offensive coordinator position? Sherrone Moore has clearly shown that he has the ability to take it over full time, but Harbaugh has a pretty strong history of co-OCs. Is it someone in house like Kirk Campbell, or is Michigan likely looking somewhere else? (Hello, Brian Griese?) — Jeff R.

Co-coordinator or not, the priority should be hiring a quarterbacks coach who can get the most out of J.J. McCarthy. If that person happens to be a prolific recruiter, even better.

McCarthy had a solid sophomore season, but there’s a lot of untapped potential there, both for the quarterback and for Michigan’s passing game. Weiss didn’t have an extensive background coaching quarterbacks before joining Michigan’s staff two years ago. He also didn’t have much experience as a recruiter. Michigan would be well served to target someone with a more specialized skill set who can help McCarthy and Michigan’s future quarterbacks with the finer points of their craft.

I’ve heard the scuttlebutt about Griese, who is in his first season as quarterbacks coach with the 49ers after more than a decade as a broadcaster. Griese has done a nice job with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, and Harbaugh loves to hire former Michigan players. Leaving a Super Bowl contender to coach quarterbacks at Michigan isn’t necessarily a step up, so unless Griese has a burning desire to coach at his alma mater, this one feels like a big swing.

If Michigan wants someone with experience at the college level, Ravens wide receivers coach Tee Martin would be an interesting option. The Ravens pipeline is starting to feel tapped out, but Martin is a different case as someone who spent most of his career in the college ranks. He would upgrade Michigan’s recruiting right away and has the quarterback expertise that Michigan needs.

Campbell, an offensive analyst and former offensive coordinator at Old Dominion, would be the obvious choice if Michigan decides to promote from within. It’s good to have that option, but my feeling is that Michigan would benefit from looking outside for someone who can freshen up the passing game.

Is this next season going to be the last of Michigan’s College Football Playoff runs for a while? I have to imagine that J.J. and Donovan (Edwards) leave for the NFL, and Blake Corum will be a senior. I am worried that after next season this team will take a big step back … am I being overly nervous? — Daniel R. 

I don’t think your concerns are totally unfounded, Daniel. Right now everything is lining up for one more run at a national championship before what could be a more substantial rebuild in 2024.

With a few notable exceptions, most of Michigan’s front-line contributors are projected to be seniors or draft-eligible juniors. Perhaps Valiant Management Group will launch another “One More Year” fund to keep McCarthy and Edwards around for their senior seasons, in which case the Wolverines should be back in the CFP conversation in 2024. But if Michigan’s top prospects declare for the draft, the Wolverines could be looking at massive turnover after next season.

Michigan’s NIL strategy has been geared toward retaining established players, which is great for a team that’s loaded with existing talent. Eventually those players will move on, and Michigan will have to identify the next wave. There’s still time to do that, but Michigan needs to get things rolling in a hurry.

The Wolverines need a strong recruiting cycle for 2024, ideally with a top-flight quarterback prospect as the headliner. The transfer portal can help, but there’s still no substitute for elite high school players like the ones fueling Michigan’s current run. And that’s without factoring possible NCAA sanctions, which are hanging in the distance with no clear timeline for resolution.

Young players emerge every season, and I’m not ready to declare 2023 as the end of Michigan’s run. But enjoy the success while it lasts, because the odds say it won’t continue forever.

Considering the complete lack of interest in playing defense — talking men’s basketball here — is it time for Juwan Howard to find an assistant coach who is a defensive specialist like Luke Yaklich was? Our offense just isn’t good enough to compensate for the nonexistent defense. — Paul S. 

The nonstop football news seems to overshadow everything, but eventually it will be hard to ignore the fact that Michigan has regressed in Year 4 under Howard.

Howard’s team is tied for second in the Big Ten, but that says more about the Big Ten than it says about Michigan. The Wolverines are 11-8 and No. 77 in the NET rankings with an 0-6 record in Quad 1 games. Nothing about Michigan’s resume says this is an NCAA Tournament team right now.

Paul is right to point out that Michigan’s defense has been a major disappointment. Michigan was No. 4 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings in 2021. Last year, the Wolverines fell to No. 74. This year they’re No. 77. I don’t have a simple explanation for that, but I’ve watched opponents score a lot of easy baskets against Michigan the past two years. I’m sure you have, too.

I want to see how Michigan finishes the season before making any proclamations about Howard’s staff. Last year’s team underachieved for most of the season, then turned it on in March and earned the program’s fifth consecutive trip to the Sweet 16. It’s hard to imagine this team going on a similar run, but if it’s going to happen, Thursday’s game against No. 1 Purdue is a good place to start.

WTF?!?!?! That’s all. — Chris M.