How To Bet £20 on day one of the Grand National meeting
The 2023 Randox Grand National meeting gets underway on Thursday, and we have some mouth-watering action to look forward to, all live on Racing TV.
The star attraction is, of course, Constitution Hill who puts his unbeaten record on the line in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle at 3.30pm and, barring accidents, he should record another easy victory on potentially his final outing over hurdles.
At odds of 1-8, he’s not a betting proposition, but let’s hope we witness something special from Nicky Henderson’s superstar.
The Grade One Racehorse Lotto Manifesto Novices’ Chase gets the action underway on Thursday, and Banbridge would have been a strong fancy had conditions been on the quicker side.
The ground on the both the hurdles and chase course was changed to good to soft on Wednesday, and with further rain forecast ahead of racing, there’s a chance it could deteriorate further.
That won’t suit the Irish raider who was ruled out of the Cheltenham Festival due to soft ground, so I’ve decided, rather reluctantly, to avoid backing him. You know what will happen now!
Although Bravemansgame is now unable to run, the race of the day has to be the Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase, with five high-class performers lining up for the Grade One contest.
A Plus Tard is the one to beat on official ratings, and will prove a tough nut to crack if he returns to the form that saw him land last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup by 15 lengths. Things haven’t exactly gone to plan since then, though, and I don’t think he was travelling that well when hampered in this year’s renewal before being pulled up. He still has plenty to prove.
Shishkin looks certain to relish this step up in trip and did remarkably well to finish second in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham after making numerous mistakes. He never travelled with much zest there, either, and comes with risks attached now, while Ahoy Senor’s jumping remains a niggle.
Although Conflated has a few pounds to find with Shishkin and A Plus Tard on ratings, I would have him chalked up a few points shorter, given the negatives surrounding the market leaders, and he looks a bet at the general 6-1 on offer.
Gordon Elliott’s charge has taken his form to a new level over the past couple of seasons having won two Grade Ones – the Irish Gold Cup and the Savills Chase – from his past six starts and also produced one of his best performances when second behind Clan Des Obeaux in this contest last year.
Three miles on a left-handed, flat track clearly suits and his effort in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup when last seen can be upgraded as he met traffic problems at crucial stages en route to finishing third.
Elliott could have bypassed Aintree and saved Conflated for the Punchestown Festival, so that suggests his high-class nine-year-old has recovered well from his Cheltenham exertions, and he's worth siding with.
At first glance, the Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase looks an impossible puzzle to solve, but it is hard to see last year's winner Latenightpass not going close again.
The ten-year-old finished runner-up in 2021, although a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival three weeks beforehand probably took the edge off him on that occasion.
He was well supported ahead of this contest 12 months ago and had his rivals strung out a fair way from home after jumping with aplomb throughout. A repeat of that performance is likely to be good enough to score again, and he's enjoyed a similar preparation in point-to-points this season.
The fact the selection races prominently should mean he stays out of trouble, while any further cut in the ground won't be a hinderance, so there are plenty of positives.
It is no surprise that the rapidly improving Douglas Talking has attracted plenty of support ahead of his bid for a hat-trick in the .
Lucinda Russell’s charge has proved a revelation since a wind op in December having returned with two impressive victories, the latest being at Sandown where he looked some way ahead of the handicapper.
Admittedly, he only had three rivals to beat there, but he had the race won before the turn for home and clocked a relatively decent time considering he scored on the bridle. His jumping was a huge asset there, too.
Front-running tactics will suit this track, and he’s the only likely pacesetter, so should be able to get into a decent rhythm out in front.
A 10lb rise since his Sandown victory is going to make things tougher for him – he was also ridden by a 7lb conditional last time out - but he’s only seven and this will be just his ninth outing over fences, so it’s unlikely he’s finished improving yet.
His handler remains in good form (four winners from 16 runners in the past fortnight) and with no concerns about the conditions, I expect him to take plenty of catching.
How To Bet £20 at Aintree on Thursday:
OPTION ONE
2.55 Aintree: £5 win on Conflated at a general 6-1.
4.05 Aintree: £5 win on Latenightpass at a general 5-1.
4.40 Aintree: £6 win on Douglas Talking at a general 7-2.
Plus a £1 win Trixie.
OPTION TWO:
£5 win Trixie:
2.55 Aintree: Conflated at a general 6-1.
4.05 Aintree: Latenightpass at a general 5-1.
4.40 Aintree: Douglas Talking at a general 7-2.
