Hurricanes vs. Devils prediction, odds: New Jersey the bet to bounce back in Game 2
Before the puck drops in Raleigh for Game 2 of the NHL Eastern Conference semis, we’re set to share a Hurricanes vs. Devils prediction.
Behind a potent offense, Carolina earned a 4-1 home win in Game 1 to take the lead in the series. That win also gave them a 3-2 edge in the season series over the Devils.
The Hurricanes can take a 2-0 series lead on home ice, where they’re 3-1 in the playoffs.
They’re a slight -118 favorite for Game 2 with the Devils sitting at -102 on the moneyline. The total is set at 5.5 goals, juiced heavily to the under at -140.
New Jersey Devils Moneyline (-102)
This shapes up as a solid contrarian spot for Game 2 given the public’s love for the Hurricanes as home favorites.
According to the Action Network PRO Report, the ticket count is quite lopsided in the Hurricanes’ favor. As of this writing, Carolina has seen 72% of all tickets, usually an indication of the public’s lean.
But, switch over to the handle percentage — traditionally an indication of the sharp side — and the percentages tell a whole different tale. As of this writing, the Devils have received 67 percent of the total handle based off 4,432 bets.
That tells me the Hurricanes, who very well may win the game, are overvalued. Plus, it’s not as if these sides are all that different, leading me to side with the Devils.
As mentioned earlier, the regular-season series between these sides finished 2-2, with each side winning a game at home and on the road.
Underlying metrics tell a similar story. At five-on-five during the regular season, the Hurricanes finished with the best expected goal differential, per moneypuck.com.
The team with the second-best expected goal differential? The New Jersey Devils.
Expand the sample to include expected goals at all strengths and bettors will find the Hurricanes and Devils are still first and second, respectively, in expected goal differential, per moneypuck.com.
The trend continues if you look at the underlying metrics from Game 1. Just at five-on-five, the Devils won the expected goals battle 1.91 to 1.8 and the high-danger chances battle 9-8, per naturalstattrick.com.
Although a 4.36-1.93 xG win for the Hurricanes at all strengths looks discouraging, it’s important to note 2.38 xG of that total came with a man advantage and against an empty net.
Seeing as these teams proved essentially equal on level terms, side with the Devils to earn a road win on Friday to even the series heading back to New Jersey.
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
