Hype, Trap, Bet: How to handle the Michigan scandal
It's fun to jump on the bandwagon. To board the hype train as it leaves the station, heading for greener pastures. Sometimes those pastures include some extra green in your pocket. Other times, it's a one-way ticket to disappointment along with the rest of the public.
In the sports betting world, it's essential to know the difference between a smart bet that the public is on, and a line that has taken on so much public steam that it's moved past the point of being good value. That's what I'm setting out to do for you this season -- help you spot those differences and think critically when you see something on TV, hear it again on a podcast, and then see it all over your social media feeds the rest of the week.
The Hype
In case you're just waking up from a month-long nap, you missed a lot.
The World Series is about to start. No, it's not the 100-win Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles. It's the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a combined 112-109 record since June 10... including the playoffs.
The NBA tipped off this week! Oh and Damian Lillard is on the Milwaukee Bucks now... not the Miami Heat.
Those 3-0 Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers that seemed unbeatable have both gone 2-2 in the past month.
Taylor Swift is now attending NFL games.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is in a lot of hot water.
And no, not because of the recruiting violations that led the school to place a self-imposed 3-game ban on Harbaugh earlier this season. The Wolverines coach, and now the entire team, is under fire for a new scandal.
A Michigan staffer reportedly bought tickets to over 35 games of Big Ten schools and potential College Football Playoff opponents, including each of the past two SEC title games as part of a sign-stealing operation. Ticket and video evidence is expected to show that the school knowingly used electronics to steal signs from opponents ahead of games, which is illegal under NCAA rules.
Between both NCAA investigations, it has been a tumultuous season off the field for the Wolverines; but we have seen nearly the opposite from the team on the field. At a perfect 8-0, Michigan is No. 2 in the AP Poll and you could argue that they have a shot to be No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff rankings release next Tuesday, with Georgia underperforming to a 1-5-1 ATS record and sporting a few close calls on its resume.
After last week's blowout win over Michigan State, Michigan is now the favorite to win the national title this season at +220, surpassing Georgia. The Bulldogs had been favored since the market opened until this week, and it's also the first time -- both under Jim Harbaugh and in the College Football Playoff era -- that Michigan has been the national title favorite. The Wolverines are the most popular public national title bet at BetMGM.
J.J. McCarthy threw for four touchdowns in last week's win and is now a co-favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at Caesars. He and Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. are both listed at +260 with only Jayden Daniels in striking distance.
So how can you attack the college football betting markets with this kind of news in the national spotlight? Should you be factoring the ramifications of this scandal into your bets, or let the on-field play speak for itself?
Is it a trap?
The first question to ponder is whether or not we expect any serious action to be taken this season. The NCAA has always taken its time with investigations, so it would likely be on the Big Ten to enforce any penalties or postseason bans before the end of 2023. The conference could issue a ruling ahead of schedule, but ESPN has reported that the NCAA would need "as full of a picture of what the facts actually are if we were to act." So, if you've already bet on them, don't rip up your Michigan futures just yet. Harbaugh isn't going anywhere for now.
Another aspect worth considering revolves around the team's internal reaction to the media discourse and public outcry surrounding this entire incident. I could see the public wanting to fade the Wolverines in their next game, thinking the controversy will get in their heads and they won't play focused in their next game. That could ring especially true coming off a bye week, which means they will have nothing to do for two weeks except be inundated by this news as different pieces of the story continue to unfold.
For the full season, I'm not so sure that we need to worry about the team losing focus. For better or worse, the team seemed to rally around Coach Harbaugh earlier in the year, employing a rather confounding tribute to him on the field prior to his return despite the suspension being agreed-upon and self-imposed. Call it what you want, but Michigan seems capable of self-motivating when slighted. The Wolverines failed to cover in all three games that Harbaugh was sidelined but pushed against Rutgers in his return and have covered in four straight games, allowing just four scores total in that span.
Now for the bad news. Since Harbaugh took over the program in 2015, Michigan is 4-11 against the spread coming off a bye week (or having multiple weeks to prepare for the next opponent). Whether it's a lack of motivation or simply a loss of focus, that's a tangible sample under the stewardship of a single coach. The 36% cover rate pales in comparison to Harbaugh's 51-36-2 ATS record when his team is on a normal schedule (59% cover rate).
Michigan's next game is home against 2-5 Purdue. The line is likely to exceed 20 points, and as a top-5 team I'm not dismissing their chances of another blowout win. But would it really shock you if they came out slow, trailed 10-7 in the second quarter and still won comfortably but didn't cover the spread?
If you're looking to the futures market, keep in mind we haven't seen Michigan get tested this season. They still have matchups against two of ESPN Analytics' top three rated teams (Ohio State and Penn State) and then would need to go into the playoff and beat two more title contenders. As of this moment, the Wolverines have not squared off against a single ranked team and have only faced two teams with a positive point differential on the season.
With extra scrutiny and attention likely in the works for some of their high-profile matchups, coupled with the fact that Harbaugh has lost six straight bowl/playoff games despite being favored in four of them (and going 0-6 ATS), there is no part of me that feels comfortable taking Michigan at +220 to win a national title. I'm also passing on the Wolverines at -110 to win the Big Ten title; give me Ohio State at +160 when ESPN Analytics says the Buckeyes have a 55% chance to win the conference.
The Bets
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 43.5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. It may be Brocktober but the 49ers have left the Brock Party and may be turning to Sam Darnold this week with Purdy in concussion protocol.
I originally wrote up this bet with the Bengals getting 5.5 points, noting that the loss of Deebo Samuel was wreaking havoc on Purdy's efficiency and had been doing so his whole career. Take a look:
Purdy has thrown one interception in 279 dropbacks with Samuel on the field but has been picked off six times in just 186 dropbacks with him absent. We have yet to see Darnold in a 49ers uniform in the regular season, but he'll likely be asked to run the offense in a similar way.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow and the revitalized Bengals have won three of four and are coming off a much-needed bye week, so we may see Burrow be as healthy as he has been all year. It's also worth noting that Burrow is 13-2 ATS as an underdog of at least three points in his career, including the playoffs. Should the line move under 3, you can rely on the fact that Burrow is 16-8 ATS in any underdog role and 19-10 ATS in his career on the road (including playoffs).
With Ja'Marr Chase averaging over 120 receiving yards per game in his last four games, facing a defense that's unexpectedly allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, I'm happy to take the points with Cincinnati and perhaps fire up some Burrow-Chase stacks in DFS this week. You can bring it back with George Kittle, as the Bengals allow the 4th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends and Kittle sees a large jump in performance with Deebo off the field (both historically and last week against the Vikings).
Game Total Theory
Unders went 7-5 last week, a slightly profitable 58% cover rate but a sign that the sportsbooks have properly accounted for the drop in scoring. The one trend that has continued, however, is the truly extreme totals continuing to fall below the posted number.
Six games this season have closed at 38 or below, and they've gone 5-0-1 to the under. The only push was Browns-49ers that we highlighted in here a few weeks ago that hit the under if you got it on Thursday.
If you want to keep riding the train, there are two options for you to board this week: Jets-Giants (currently 36.5) and Falcons-Titans (already down to 36). Consider playing these unders and then watching the games through those fancy solar eclipse glasses. Too little scoring is bad on the eyes.
