In Defense of Projection Models

The Brewers are on the verge of missing the postseason. FanGraphs’ postseason odds calculators were bullish on them early in the season. The Cardinals deserve some credit for their role in their decline. The Brewers beat the Phillies 1-0 on April 24. That day Fan graph had their chances of reaching the playoffs at 71.6%. That night the model moved them up nearly nine percentage points to 80.3%. It was a big change in certainty for a team that had played less than 10% of its schedule.

FanGraphs has been giving playoff odds since 2014. If the Brewers miss the playoffs it will be the fourth time one of their teams has fallen short. The teams that FanGraph's was relatively certain about have largely lived up to that billing. If Fan graph's models were perfect, teams with a 95% chance to reach the postseason would have made it between 25 and 26 out of the 27 instances. That's 86%. The Brewers are going to leave this season with the sting of disappointment. Only a few teams in recent history can relate.

The 2015 Washington Nationals peaked above 95% for the first time in mid-May. The 2021 San Diego Padres were the talk of the spring. They had a 96.8% chance to make the postseason on April 15. After July 1, they finished under .500 and eleven games back of last postseason berth.