Inside the big odds shifts of the 2022-23 FedExCup season

Nick Taylor was frustrated. Annoyed. Almost feeling a little embarrassed. The Canadian had just made another bogey at his home RBC Canadian Open during the opening round, from the fairway no less, on the par-4 sixth hole.

It was the fourth of his round that also had housed a double-bogey and left him languishing at 4 over through 15 holes in front of the Canadian faithful. He would end the round with a 3-over 73 and sit tied for 120th, eight shots back.

Any thought of becoming the first Canadian to win their home open in 69 years was a pipedream at best. Even his closest family and friends would have had a hard time swallowing it as a concept.

In fact, when he sat four over late in Thursday’s round, Taylor’s odds to win the golf tournament had ballooned to +200000, or 2,000 to 1. Bet $1, win $2,000. Bet $5, win $10,000. Bet $10, win $20,000.

Of course, deciding to wager on a player who appears headed for a missed cut would be a brave (or perhaps foolish) move. But the facts remain that the sport of golf provides betting fluctuations like no other.

Three days later, after rounds of 67-63-66, Taylor won in a playoff against Tommy Fleetwood, draining an incredible 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole and sending his country into rapture.

Nick Taylor jars 72-footer for eagle to win four-hole playoff at the RBC Canadian

Those 2000-to-1 odds were the largest for a winner in the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season, but they weren’t the only outlier according to odds monitors at U.S. Integrity. The rollercoaster of live golf betting provides multiple chances to collect high odds winners. While the NFL, NBA, NHL and other sports leagues certainly can see odds move during play, nothing matches the PGA TOUR.

Of course, some weeks are devoid of the fluctuations. Jon Rahm was never worse odds than +700 during his successful week at The American Express, and his high point for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera was just +850. That was also the high point for Tony Finau’s win at the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Rory McIlroy never bounced outside of +1200 to win the Genesis Scottish Open.

But diving into each event of the season, using official betting operators of the TOUR’s live odds, we can see so many chances for those picking players with comeback capabilities.

Taylor might have been inspired by fellow Canadian Adam Svensson way back last fall at The RSM Classic.

When Svensson trudged off the par-5 fourth hole at Sea Island Resort’s Plantation course during the first round following back-to-back bogeys, he had dropped to 2-over par though his opening 13 holes, a score he remained on for 16 holes. One closing birdie saw him shoot a 1-over 73 and sitting tied for 108th place, nine shots off the pace.

During that stretch of three holes Svensson’s odds to win the golf tournament skyrocketed to +150000, or 1,500 to 1. Three days later he was the champion.

Austrian Sepp Straka was another to hit +150000 during his winning effort this season at the John Deere Classic. TPC Deere Run is notorious for low scores, yet Straka sat three over through 16 holes of his opening round, making him an extremely improbable winning option. His 2-over 73 that round had him 11 shots back of first round leader Jonas Blixt in a tie for 133rd!

Even on Sunday, before his final round, Straka was a +6500 long shot to win. A closing 62, that looked like a possible 59 until a final hole double bogey, was enough to win by two shots. It’s rare to find a 65-to-1 winner anywhere in sports betting, yet Straka nailed it.

Sepp Straka’s Round 4 highlights from John Deere

While those three players were the only ones to get into the thousands, there were countless winners in the hundreds-to-one.

Newly minted FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland secured his first win of the season was at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. But when he bogeyed the 12th hole in Saturday’s third round, dropping to two under for the tournament, he sat seven shots behind leader Hideki Matsuyama.

At that point Hovland was +15000 to win at Jack’s Place, but a combination of Hovland making three birdies in his last four holes and Matsuyama dropping five shots over his last 11 holes quickly saw those juicy odds disappear.

A final-round 70 would be enough to get into a playoff with Denny McCarthy, which Hovland would win.

Hovland was also up to +5500 with nine holes to play at the BMW Championship before storming home to claim victory.

Now let’s shift focus to Wyndham Clark. Both of his victories (The U.S. Open and the Wells Fargo Championship) offered up chances to get a huge return on investments.

During the weekend prior to the U.S. Open Clark’s odds hit +16000 before shortening into around +11000 before his opening tee time. At Quail Hollow he bogeyed the fifth hole in the opening round and went up to +13000.

Wyndham Clark taps in to secure first win at Wells Fargo

In The Open Championship, Brian Harman was +21000 prior to the Genesis Scottish Open the week before. But a reasonable T12 finish meant he started at Royal Liverpool at +13000.

Kurt Kitayama was the first big upset winner in a designated event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, opening at +30000. That same week, over at the Puerto Rico Open, Nico Echavarria would salute after being +15000.

At the Valspar Open, Taylor Moore was one over through 13 holes in the opening round, moving out to +15000. Lee Hodges was +11000 to win the 3M Open, the same number available for Keegan Bradley to win the Travelers Championship and Lucas Glover at one point to win the Wyndham Championship.

Glover briefly hit +15000 to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship during the opening round, giving the “Glover Lovers” two weeks of opportunity for big scores in live markets.

At the Charles Schwab Challenge, Emiliano Grillo bogeyed his 13th hole of the opening round to drop back to one under for the tournament, where eight under was setting the pace. It allowed his odds to hit +11000. When he traded two birdies with two bogeys in the opening four holes of Sunday’s final round he got up to as high as +5500 before ultimately winning.

Rahm was +8000 to win The Sentry Tournament of Champions after six holes of the final round. But he blitzed as Collin Morikawa faltered and the rest is history.

Even during Scottie Scheffler’s dominant PLAYERS victory, he drifted to +2000 over his opening nine holes Thursday where he failed to make a birdie.

So, when it comes to the 2024 PGA TOUR season, don’t be quick to discredit your favorite players if they start slow. In fact, it’s near certain some of them are going to fight back. And you can be riding that wave with them.