Islanders vs. Sabres prediction: NHL odds, picks, best bets
The Islanders look to continue their push for a playoff spot in Buffalo against the ascending Sabres on Thursday.
Coach Patrick Roy has this group playing their best hockey of the season as they head upstate to Buffalo for a 7 p.m. contest.
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
These teams have morphed into very different versions of themselves.
Most people expected the Sabres, who were one of the most high-event teams in the NHL last season, to continue to push the pace and lean into their offensive talents in 2023-24, but the opposite has happened.
Buffalo has slowed things down considerably and seems committed to turning games into slogs rather than opening them up.
Over their last 25 games, the Sabres are 14-10-1 and allowing just 1.7 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
The underlying numbers are not eye-popping, but Buffalo is surrendering just 2.4 expected goals and 10.2 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.
For the Islanders, the change has been drastic.
Under Lane Lambert they were one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL and were giving up quality scoring chances for fun.
Somehow, Patrick Roy has completely turned things around in a month. The numbers are bewildering.
Since Roy took over Jan. 21, the Islanders lead the NHL in expected goals against and high-danger scoring chances allowed at five-on-five and their 52.1 percent expected goals rate is the ninth-best mark in the circuit.
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It took the Isles some time to get going under Roy, but the predictive numbers show this is a sustainable run of form and not just a “new-coach bump.”
Bookmakers have priced this game as essentially a coin flip and that seems fair given the schedule spot for the Isles, but the Under is playable with both clubs happy to limit space and opportunities for the other.
Recommendation: Under 6 goals (-115, BetMGM)
