Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Betting Picks and Predictions

If you're tired of hearing Jake Paul's name in the media, maybe this event isn't for you. However, If you like making money, our boxing expert has found a juicy plus-money market he's attacking in Paul vs. Diaz.

The Jake Paul train has left the station, and the crossover star is returning to the ring to settle a grudge match with Nate Diaz this Saturday, August 5 in Dallas, Texas.

Paul is going back to what works after suffering a loss in his last fight, and MMA bad boy Diaz is looking to shut Paul up once and for all.

The "Problem Child" is the heavy favorite to take down Stockton’s finest, with Paul vs. Diaz odds showing the former UFC star as high as a +350 underdog in his boxing debut. 

Here are my free boxing picks and predictions for Paul vs. Diaz this Saturday in Dallas.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz odds

Odds as of August 5, 2023.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz betting predictions

Picks made on August 3. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz betting preview

Jake Paul finally faced a boxer in a grudge match vs. Tommy Fury last February, and things didn’t go as planned. Fury won a split decision that should have been unanimous, leading Paul to change his training staff and go back to what works, namely finding an MMA fighter looking for a payday.

Paul developed well under previous trainer BJ Flores, but Paul going back to “Sugar” Shane Mosley should give him the offensive push Flores wasn’t able to get out of him in the Fury fight.

“The Problem Child” has shown flashes of real talent. He works with a solid jab, has a powerful right hand, and fights just as well as any other pro should at this stage. Paul also has demonstrated that his power carries late in fights, and has decent conditioning to boot.

Though MMA star Diaz made a reputation for his toughness and has sparred with several pro boxers throughout his career, this is going to be a new world for him. Diaz escaped the UFC with a win over Tony Ferguson in September 2022, and he’ll be fighting at the heaviest of his career for his boxing debut. While renowned for his striking prowess, Diaz only registered five knockouts in a 34-fight career.

What Diaz does bring is a lot of pressure and physicality. If any of his MMA skills will translate to the squared circle, it’ll be his ability to fight on the inside and relentlessly stalk his opponent. Questions linger about how much the 38-year-old has left, especially as he was clearly on the back nine of his career before the Ferguson fight.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz boxing prediction and best bet

Prediction: Jake Paul ML

The only thing Diaz is going to have as far as advantages are concerned is being a sentimental favorite. Paul is younger and physically bigger than Diaz and has more classical training with the sport. Boxing conditioning is different from MMA conditioning, though Diaz is always on point with his cardio.

How Diaz’s body will react to fighting 15 pounds over his usual fighting weight at an advanced age will be interesting. Paul can simply work behind his jab, lean on Diaz in the clinch, and line him up for a big right hand if Diaz wants to scrap.

Paul might have a few moments where he’ll land a bomb on Diaz, but Diaz will keep coming. Eventually, the fight should reach the middle rounds, where Paul’s early work will either slow Diaz down to a crawl or fight a desperate game plan as victory starts slipping away. 

Paul picked Diaz to bounce back on a big platform, and that’s exactly what will happen. With Paul already at -390, we’ll have to find value outside the moneyline.

Prediction: Jake Paul moneyline (-380 at Caesars)

Best Bet: Jake Paul to win by decision

Unlike Paul’s previous opponents, I think Diaz is gritty enough and has enough of a background in boxing to hold his own. Considering the horrendous amount of punishment he absorbed in the waning days of his UFC career, he’s shown an iron chin and solid conditioning to go the full 10-round distance.

I don’t think Paul is going to over-extend his resources for a knockout. Once Paul gets a sense of Diaz’s durability, he’ll opt to play the long game. I’m picking Paul to outclass Diaz, and beat him up a little bit, though settling for a decision win.

Prediction: Jake Paul to win by decision (+350 at DraftKings)