Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Betting Analysis and Prediction
In the co-main event of one of the most anticipated upcoming ufc fights cards of 2023, there will be a battle between two of the most dangerous fighters in the world. The No. 3 light heavyweight in the world, Jan Blachowicz, will welcome the No. 2 middleweight, Alex Pereira, to the 205 lb. division.
breaking down this fight both analytically and technically.
Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira
Location of the fight: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT.
Date and Time: Saturday, July 29. 10:00 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN+
Blachowicz is looking to bounce back from a lackluster performance against Magomed Ankalaev which resulted in a split draw.
Pereira is coming off a vicious KO loss in the middleweight title fight against Israel Adesanya, losing his belt and deciding to move up in weight class.
Blachowicz is the former UFC light heavyweight champion and has a professional record of 29-9-1, making this his 40th career fight. He has 9 KOs and 9 submissions under his belt and has been fighting in the UFC since 2014.
Now, at the age of 40, he finds himself still in the driver’s seat for a potential title shot. Blachowicz averages 3.41 significant strikes landed per minute, while only absorbing 2.81 strikes coming back at him. This patient and technical approach is paired with this “Legendary Polish Power” as well.
Pereira is in a totally different position in his MMA fighting career. After a dominating kickboxing career, becoming a GLORY double-champion, he finds himself as a 7-2 mixed martial artist that has won a UFC title already. Pereira has 6 KOs in his 7 career wins.
“Poatan” is arguably the most powerful puncher pound-for-pound in UFC history. He’s known for this picture-perfect left hook that he can use as a counter, or at the end of a combination. Pereira averages 5.23 significant strikes landed and 3.76 significant strikes absorbed per minute inside the octagon.
No injuries have been reported to the UFC.
With the light heavyweight title remaining vacant, this is most likely a title-eliminator bout.
According to UFC odds, this fight is probably going to close at pick ‘em odds–with both fighters being -110 to win. Those are very fair odds because both men have such a high chance of ending each other’s night in one punch.
The fight is favored to end inside the distance at -215. A Blachowicz KO/TKO is going for +370, and Pereira is +155 to do the same. One interesting prop bet is Blachowicz by submission going at +450. Oddsmakers aren’t taking his 9 other submission victories very seriously in this matchup.
To make the best Blachowicz vs Pereira prediction, breaking down the film is something that needs to be done. Technically, the striking skillset has to be an advantage for Pereira. MMA striking is slightly different than kickboxing, but we know that Pereira’s skills have translated nicely to MMA.
Blachowicz’s biggest advantage in this fight is his grappling. He has a huge headstart on those skills, and we have even seen him beat Adesanya by dominating in wrestling down the stretch of their fight.
UFC picks, especially with pick ‘em odds, are pretty much impossible to be 100% confident in. Anything can happen when that octagon door shuts.
- The official Blachowicz vs Pereira prediction is that Blachowicz gets his hand raised on Saturday night.
If you want to bet on Pereira, take him to win by TKO/KO. That is his path to victory.
We are going with Blachowicz because it’s the smarter bet. He has the skill set to make this a fight that Pereira doesn’t want to be in and grind his way to a decision victory. But don’t be surprised if Blachowicz catches Pereira as well.
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