UFC 295 Best Bets Today: Top UFC Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for UFC 295

UFC 295 is taking place on Saturday from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The card is headlined by an exciting light heavyweight title fight between former UFC light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka and former UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira. Prochazka is making his return from a significant shoulder injury, which forced him to vacate the title last year.

A DraftKings Sportsbook bettor had a huge win the last time Prochazka fought, turning $50 into $10,000 with a UFC Same Game Parlay bet featuring the following picks:

• Jiri Prochazka Moneyline
• Over 3.5 Rounds
• Exact Method of Victory - Submission

Because Prochazka won the fight by submission due to a rear-naked choke in Round 5, the bettor took home a profit of $10K.

The co-main event of UFC 295 is an interim heavyweight title fight between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall. Pavlovich is one of the scariest punchers in the UFC due to his long arms and big punching power, and all six of his UFC wins are by KO/TKO. Aspinall is one of the most well-rounded heavyweights the division has ever seen, and his only UFC loss is due to a freak injury 15 seconds into the fight.

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Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

Prochazka has only fought three times in the UFC but quickly rose to the top of the division, which was capped off by a title fight win over Pereira’s training partner and close friend, Glover Teixeira. Pereira primarily trains at Teixeira’s gym in Connecticut, so there will be some familiarity between the two camps for this matchup. Prochazka is coming off a substantial layoff due to a serious shoulder injury and has not fought since June 2022, creating an element of uncertainty as to how he will look.

Prochazka is aggressive and fights at a quick pace, landing about six significant strikes per minute while absorbing over five significant strikes per minute, two elevated numbers. Defensively, Prochazka is prone to keeping his hands low, which makes him hittable when he closes the distance to throw strikes. This shows up in Prochazka’s striking metrics—Prochazka has avoided just 40% of opponent significant strike attempts, which is a very poor rate.

Prochazka absorbing an elevated amount of strikes is alarming for his chances on the feet against Pereira, who is nicknamed “Poatan”, which means “Hands of Stone”. Pereira is a murderous striker who has arguably the greatest left hook in the history of MMA. Pereira’s left hook put Israel Adesanya’s lights out in their second kickboxing match and was a key part of the final combination Pereira used to finish Adesanya in their first UFC fight, where Pereira won the middleweight title. Pereira’s striking is very diverse, and he attacks everywhere, from calf kicks to high kicks to a stinging jab to a power right hand to his left hook of death. Pereira is also very rangy and excellent at distance management, which generally keeps him safe from return fire. As one of the UFC’s most elite and dangerous strikers, Pereira will have a significant edge as long as he can keep this fight at distance.

Prochazka’s best path to victory is through takedowns and offensive grappling. Pereira’s wrestling is not strong, which was evident in his most recent fight against Jan Blachowicz, where Blachowicz took Pereira down three times and racked up over seven minutes of control time in the fight, good for a massive control time percentage of about 50%. Prochazka controlling Pereira through offensive grappling can diminish Pereira’s biggest strength, which is his distance striking.

The good news for Pereira is that Prochazka does not have an elite wrestling or grappling background. While Prochazka did submit Teixeira in his last fight to claim the title, this appeared to be because Teixeira, a jiu jitsu black belt, did not respect Prochazka’s ground game enough. Prochazka did not have any hooks in when he had Teixeira’s back before the fight-finishing choke, which caused Teixeira to not respect the threat of the choke. Teixeira left his neck exposed, and Prochazka was able to get his arm underneath Teixeira’s jaw and squeeze despite not having any hooks in, which forced Teixeira to tap out from a very unorthodox position.

Pereira has showcased good choke defense on the ground in the UFC, particularly in his fight against Blachowicz, where Blachowicz had Pereira’s back for almost the entire first round but could not finish a choke. If Pereira finds himself on the ground with his back exposed, he should be well-prepared to defend choke attempts from Prochazka.

Prochazka is dangerous, but he also has holes that can be exploited. Pereira could easily connect through Prochazka’s leaky defense on the feet and win with a TKO/KO stoppage. Prochazka has been wobbled in the UFC, most notably in his fight against Dominick Reyes, which forced him to shoot for a takedown while he tried to shake the cobwebs out. Prochazka took a bad shot and ended up having to fight his way out of a guillotine. Prochazka was also knocked out prior to joining the UFC, so his chin has been conquered before.

Pereira is in a good spot to win this fight, and backing Pereira on the Moneyline could be a fruitful decision. Taking Pereira to win by KO/TKO is also a solid plus-money option for a higher potential payout.

Picks:

Alex Pereira Moneyline

Odds: -120 ($100 bet pays out $183)

• Alex Pereira Moneyline (3 Way)
• Exact Method of Victory: KO/TKO/DQ

Parlay Bet:

• Alex Pereira Moneyline
• Sergei Pavlovich Moneyline

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.