UFC 294 Usman vs. Chimaev best bet: Back the Nigerian Nightmare to win at plus-money odds

Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev meet at UFC 294 with a middleweight title shot on the line.

The pre-fight narrative: Usman is making his middleweight debut after Paulo Costa dropped out of this fight due to an elbow injury. The Nigerian Nightmare was a perfect 15-0 in the UFC before consecutive losses to Leon Edwards but we're expecting him to pull off the upset in Abu Dhabi.

UFC oddsas of 4:01 p.m. ET on 10/17/2023.

UFC 294 Usman vs. Chimaev best bet

Best Bet: Usman to win (+235)

Chimaev is 12-0 with 11 finishes to his name.

Betting against a guy like that can be scary, but Usman is a pretty scary guy himself. The Nigerian Nightmare is one of the sport's greatest welterweights ever with six title fight wins, four of which came via knockout.

He was well on his way to a seventh against Edwards at UFC 278 before his English adversary landed a shocking head kick with under a minute left in the fight. Usman lost their trilogy bout by majority decision, but that fight was pretty close, too.

Basically, the 36-year-old is a couple of breaks away from also being undefeated in the UFC. He's a complete horse that won't stay down for long.

Chimaev is a great wrestler and has five submission victories but it's hard to imagine him tapping out Usman. The Nigerian has the best takedown defence (97.3%) and the fifth-most ground control time (2:13:51) in UFC history.

These two are pretty even in the striking department. Chimaev lands 7.30 significant strikes per minute to Usman's 4.46 but he also absorbs 1.23 more strikes per minute (3.98 to 2.75). The Chechen plays fast and loose and that has typically worked in his favour.

But Chimaev couldn't finish Gilbert Burns — a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt — and we don't think he'll be able to finish Usman, either.

Key stat: Usman has never lost a three-round MMA fight.