Kape vs Dos Santos Prediction & Picks (UFC 293): Potential Show-Stealer

bettingnews.com

07 September 2023

Kape vs Dos Santos Prediction & Picks (UFC 293): Potential Show-Stealer

Betting News has spent the week covering all of the biggest fights leading up to UFC 293 on Saturday. The next bout to take a look at is the flyweight matchup between the red-hot Manel Kape and the debuting Felipe dos Santos.

The upcoming Kape vs dos Santos showdown is ripe with betting opportunities that you won’t want to miss. Fortunately, this article contains everything you need to know about the bout, including the latest betting odds to the best bets to lock in before UFC 293.

UFC 293: Kape vs Dos Santos Odds

Moneyline

Manel Kape (-400)
Felipe dos Santos (+305)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 1.5 Rounds (-150)
Under 1.5 Rounds (+115)

Kape vs Dos Santos Tale of the Tape

Manel Kape — Felipe dos Santos

Record: 18-6 — 7-0 (1NC)
Height: 5’5” — 5’7”
Reach: 68” — 70”
Weight: 125 lbs — 125 lbs
Age: 29 — 22
Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
Knockouts: 11 — 2

Kape vs Dos Santos UFC 293 Preview

Kape was originally supposed to face former interim UFC Flyweight Championship challenger Kai Kara-France at UFC 293 until the latter withdrew due to a concussion. Instead, “Starboy” faces Dos Santos on relatively short notice.

Nevertheless, the new fight is clearly a good matchup for Kape if he hopes to continue his winning ways. His -400 moneyline odds on Bovada carry an implied win probability of 80.0%.

The versatile 29-year-old has been heating up ever since going 0-2 to begin his UFC run. He’s since won three consecutive fights, which includes a pair of first-round knockout victories over Ode' Osbourne and Zhalgas Zhumagulov.

Kape consistently proves how dangerous he is every time he enters the octagon, highlighted by 16 finishes (11 via KO/TKO, five via submission) in his 18 career victories (88.9%).

While another win would help Kape continue to ascend the flyweight rankings, a victory for Dos Santos would completely reshape his career.

The 22-year-old Chute Boxe prospect enters the UFC with a perfect 7-0 record. He’s won at least two fights by KO/TKO, submission, and decision, showcasing that he also has some versatility in his arsenal. Having said that, his last two wins came via points.

Dos Santos can be an aggressive fighter at times, often leaving himself open to strikes in the pocket. That could be an issue with Kape landing 4.46 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy.

The newcomer is also a solid grappler, but so is Kape, who averages 0.56 takedowns and 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes with 69% takedown defense. It’s going to be a competitive bout and interesting to see which flyweight competitor makes the first mistake.

UFC 293: Kape vs Dos Santos Betting Trends and Markets

Unless you’re banking on an upset, the Kape vs Dos Santos moneyline isn’t too appealing. Fortunately, Bovada has a nice variety of prop bets for the upcoming bout if you’re looking for more options.

For example, one bet I like is that fight going the distance at +180 odds. Even though both fighters know how to finish the competition, their versatile arsenal could lead to a back-and-forth battle that goes the distance.

If the fight doesn’t reach the time limit, Kape is favored to win inside the distance at -175 odds with his likeliest method of victory being KO/TKO (-135). It isn’t too surprising given that the 29-year-old is a dangerous striker with 11 knockout victories to his name.

If you’re looking to add even more value to a Kape knockout win, you can wager on it happening in Round 1 at +130 odds. Seven of his 11 all-time KO/TKO victories occurred in the first round, including his most recent two.

If Dos Santos pulls off the upset, his top victory method is winning by decision (+600).

Again, the Brazilian battler’s latest victories came by some form of decision. Furthermore, Kape is just 2-4 when his fights go the distance, meaning a longer contest might actually benefit Dos Santos.

Kape vs Dos Santos Prediction & Picks for UFC 293

While I see Dos Santos having a solid career, I’m taking Kape to win at UFC 293. He’s the more experienced fighter and truly looks like he’s putting things together, whereas Dos Santos was just on Dana White’s Contender Series and still has much to prove. I see this fight being too much, too soon for the underdog.

Having said that, I will take the fight going the distance (+180) and Kape winning via points (+325) as two solid betting options. I believe that both fighters being as versatile as they are leads to this fight going the distance.

Due to Dos Santos’ habit of being mistake-prone, Kape will do enough to get the judges on his side to leave with the win.