Fiorot vs Namajunas Prediction & Picks (UFC Paris): Back the Home Hero

bettingnews.com

30 August 2023

Anticipation across the MMA world is only growing with UFC Paris taking place just over three days away. The main card is ripe with bouts that you won’t want to miss, including the women’s flyweight co-main event between France’s Manot Fiorot and former two-time strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.

Fiorot heads into Saturday’s fight as the No. 3 flyweight in the UFC while Namajunas is coming up a weight class after being the No. 2-ranked strawweight. In other words, this fight should be a competitive one.

Below is your preview for UFC Paris’ co-main event, complete with the latest Fiorot vs Namajunas betting odds, fight trends, and picks.

Fiorot vs Namajunas Tale of the Tape

Manon Fiorot — Rose Namajunas

Record: 10-1 — 11-5
Height: 5’7” — 5’5”
Reach: 65” — 65”
Weight: 125 lbs — 115 lbs
Age: 33 — 31
Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
Knockouts: 6 — 2

Fiorot vs Namajunas Odds

Moneyline

Manon Fiorot (-180)
Rose Namajuans (+150)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 1.5 Rounds (-375)
Under 1.5 Rounds (-260)

Fiorot vs Namajunas Preview UFC Paris

With Fiorot and Namajunas being two of the top fighters in their respective divisions, it’s fair to anticipate a close-fought bout. Having said that, Bovada is favoring Fiorot to be victorious at -180 odds, carrying an implied win probability of 64.3%.

It’s not hard to see why Fiorot is favored considering that she’s heading into UFC Paris on a 10-fight winning streak. In fact, the hometown hero hasn’t even tasted defeat since her first-ever professional MMA bout.

After dominating UAE Warriors and EFC, Fiorot has impressed with a 5-0 record in the UFC. She started her run in style with back-to-back TKO victories before following those up with three consecutive unanimous decision wins over Mayra Bueno Silva, Jennifer Maia, and Katlyn Chookagian.

On the other side, Namajunas can’t be overlooked despite the odds not being on her side this time around.

ESPN’s 2017 MMA Fighter of the Year has produced results like few have in recent years, winning nine of her last 12 fights since joining the UFC. She’s proven that she can overcome any opponent in a number of ways during that run, winning four times by decision, thrice by submission, and twice by KO/TKO.

Keeping that in mind, Namajunas is coming off a split-decision loss that saw her lose the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship to Carla Esparza at UFC 274 — nearly 16 months ago. It wouldn’t be shocking if cage rust is a factor on Saturday evening.

When it comes to statistics, the favorite has the edge in most categories. Fiorot lands nearly three more significant strikes per minute with better striking defense (71% vs. 60%) than Namajunas.

On top of that, Fiorot has better numbers for most grappling statistics, especially takedown defense (83% vs. 60%). Needless to say, “The Beast” deserves to be the favorite.

UFC Paris: Fiorot vs Namajunas Betting Trends and Markets

Betting on the moneyline can be fun, but some bettors need the thrill that prop bets bring to the table. Fortunately, there isn’t a shortage of Fiorot vs Namajunas props heading into UFC Paris.

The aforementioned sportsbook favors Fiorot winning this weekend by points at +125 odds. I can’t say I’m surprised by this given that the 33-year-old has won each of her last four fights by some form of decision while Namajunas hasn’t been finished in over four years.

It also makes sense that Fiorot winning via points is the most likely scenario with BetOnline favoring the fight to go the distance at -180 odds.

If you’re expecting an upset, Namajunas’ top victory method is also winning by points (+250). Not only is “Thug” 4-2 in her last six fights that have gone the distance, but she’s likely aware of the fact that Fiorot’s only loss came via split decision.

If this fight doesn’t go the distance, BetOnline anticipates it ending with a first-round KO/TKO win for Fiorot (+700). Although she holds six knockout victories to her name, only one happened in Round 1, which was also nearly three years ago.

Fiorot vs Namajunas Prediction & Picks for UFC Paris

While Namajunas is the more accomplished fighter, I’m taking Fiorot to win in her home country. It’s just hard to like Namajunas when she’s been away for over a year and has never competed as a flyweight. Expect Fiorot to feed off to crowd’s support, resulting in a win.

Let’s also go with Fiorot winning by points (+125 on BetOnline) as the best bet given that Namajunas knows how to survive and avoid being finished. However, if you’re looking for a more neutral bet, you can also take the fight to go the distance (-175 odds on Bovada).