Bucks vs Cavaliers odds, picks, prediction: Bet on low-scoring alternate total
Thanks to a five-game winning streak, the Cleveland Cavaliers might have to rethink their plans at the NBA trade deadline. At 23-15, they are tied for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference despite having multiple starters in and out of the lineup with injuries.
Darius Garland (20.7 points per game) and Evan Mobley (16) are the latest Cavaliers starters who remain sidelined. While the rest of the team has recently gotten the job done in their absence, they’ll now face a stiff challenge with the Milwaukee Bucks in town for a matchup Wednesday night.
It’s worth noting that this recent winning streak didn’t feature a single team with a record above .500. Nonetheless, the market appears somewhat bullish on the underdog Cavaliers, who’ve been bet down from 4.5 to 3.5.
I’m not entirely convinced with the spread move and prefer to find better value with a play on the total.
There’s no disputing Damian Lillard’s effect on the Bucks this season. Per TeamRankings, Milwaukee leads the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 117.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s an increase of roughly six points compared to the previous campaign.
What’s interesting is that Lillard hasn’t necessarily made the Bucks a better perimeter team. Milwaukee is averaging fewer 3-point field goals (14.4 per game) than last season (14.9).
Instead, the Bucks are taking advantage of their improved spacing with Lillard on the perimeter while Giannis Antetokounmpo operates closer to the basket.
Antetokounmpo attempted 2.7 3-pointers per game while shooting just 27.5% last season. But with Lillard’s arrival, we’ve seen his per-game attempts drop to 1.7.
Defensively, the Bucks have gone from fourth in efficiency to 20th. However, if you look at their perimeter defense, they are allowing fewer 3-pointers this season: 11.9 vs. 12.3.
Where they’ve struggled is in the interior, where they’ve gone from 12th to 25th in points allowed in the paint.
However, with Mobley still sidelined, expect Milwaukee to be able to improve on that part of their defense, at least for one game.
While the Cavaliers should be commended for their recent run, getting too excited about victories over the Wizards (2), Spurs, Nets and Bulls is difficult. Of those four teams, only Chicago (19th) ranks higher in defensive efficiency than Milwaukee.
Offensively, the Cavaliers rank just 20th in efficiency with 110.8 points per 100 possessions.
Relying more on their perimeter game this season, their 3-point attempts have increased from 31.5 to 36.8. However, those numbers suggest more desperation than anything else because Cleveland is only 26th in 3-point percentage (35.2%).
The Cavaliers also play slower than most teams in the league, ranking 24th in the league with 102 possessions per game.
For the Cavaliers to have a chance in Wednesday night’s game, they’ll need to slow down the tempo, and playing at home certainly will help their cause.
While facing lesser competition during this winning streak, the over cashed in just one of Cleveland’s last five games. If Cleveland falls behind against the Bucks, I could see them resorting to chucking up 3-pointers to stay close.
However, that strategy isn’t particularly tailored to the Cavaliers’ strengths. Plus, the Bucks have shown to be better than expected at defending the perimeter, and they come into this game with decent rest after last playing on Sunday.
After opening as high as 238.5, we’ve seen this total drop to 236.5. Although that number is still higher than my model’s projection of 234.5, I recommend taking advantage of the alternate total at BetRivers and playing this game under 237.5 points at -122 odds.
Pick: ALT under 237.5 points (-122 at BetRivers)
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