Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction: NBA Playoffs Game 5 odds, picks

The Knicks entered their first-round series against the Cavaliers as the clear underdogs, but they’ve looked like the better team through the first four games of this series.

They’ll take a 3-1 lead into Wednesday’s Game 5 in Cleveland, though the hosts are priced as modest favorites in a must-win spot to keep their season alive.

Here’s how we’re betting Wednesday’s contest, which tips off at 7 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

Knicks vs. Cavaliers odds

• Cavaliers -5.5 (-110), moneyline -250
• Knicks +5.5 (-110), moneyline +190
• O/U 202.5 (-110)

Cavaliers vs. Knicks prediction and analysis

(7 p.m. ET on NBA TV)

I’ve backed the Cavaliers to win in each of the first four games of this series. And in three of those four games, it’s come back to bite me in the backside.

The lone exception was Game 2, when Cleveland asserted its will on the defensive end in a 17-point blowout win.

That was also the last time the Cavaliers played on their home court, and there’s a compelling case for a bounce-back effort in Wednesday’s must-win spot at home.

Only five teams have boasted a better home record this year than Cleveland (32-11 straight up), which also owns the fifth-best home record against the spread (25-17-1).

The Cavs were also one of the best teams in the regular season on a per-possession basis, fueled by the league’s No. 1 defense and two elite scorers in Donovan Mitchell (28.3 PPG) and Darius Garland (21.6).

Here’s the only problem with all of that: it completely ignores what we’ve seen over the last week from the Knicks, who have seemingly taken control of this series.

Jalen Brunson has carried New York’s offense in this series, scoring at least 20 points in all four games with exactly six assists in each of the last three contests.

He’s helped offset the sluggish series from leading scorer Julius Randle (25.1 PPG), who’s averaging just 14.8 points on 32.3% shooting and was benched down the stretch of his team’s riveting Game 4 win.

That’s an issue that seems like it’ll linger well beyond Sunday’s game, as Randle was less than enthused about coach Tom Thibodeau’s decision to shelf him late.

So will Randle’s nagging ankle injury that sidelined him for the final five games of the regular season and clearly seemed to hamper him in Game 4 (7 points).

That puts a ton of pressure on Brunson to continue carrying a massive burden offensively.

And while he’s been up to the task individually, the Knicks’ offense as a whole has sputtered – their 102 points on Sunday were their most in a game all series, and their offensive rating (105.1) ranks 13th among 16 playoff teams entering Wednesday.

Betting on the NBA?

The last place team?

The Cavaliers, who are scoring just 101.3 points per 100 possessions in this series and have been held to 79 and 93 points, respectively, over the last two games.

Even Mitchell, whose career playoff scoring average (27.7 PPG) is among the highest in NBA history, was held to just 11 points on 18 shot attempts on Sunday.

This series has been all about defense, and I don’t see that changing in a crucial spot for both teams.

Since 2005, series that open with four straight unders are 10-5 to the under in Game 5, and I see little reason to back away from another under bet in this one.