Saudi Derby: Havnameltdown, Speed Boat Beach are equals

Finding the better Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-old will prove difficult in the Group 3, $1.5 million Saudi Derby next weekend at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh, as Havnameltdown and Speed Boat Beach give a similar impression in terms of class, speed figures and running style. 

Havnameltdown holds a small edge in terms of class, mostly because his graded-stakes wins came on dirt. Those graded stakes wins include the Best Pal (G3) and Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar last year and the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita toward the end of last month.

His only career loss came in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last September, when he ran second to his stablemate Cave Rock, who dominated the field. Cave Rock won the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) in his next start before finishing second to Forte in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Speed Boat Beach’s lone graded-stakes win came on turf in the one-mile Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3). He also won the Speakeasy Stakes last October. But the reason Speed Boat Beach feels similar in terms of class is because of his debut, where he outran his other stablemate Hejazi in second.

Hejazi went on to finish third in the American Pharoah at Santa Anita behind Cave Rock, where he lost by 8 3/4 lengths as a maiden.

Even though Speed Boat Beach has not won a graded stakes on dirt, nor competed in one, it feels like he fits at the same level as Havnameltdown. At the start of his career he beat Hejazi, and Hejazi was fast enough to place in a Grade 1 stakes race in his next start. 

As for speed figures, that is a hard comparison because of the different surfaces they competed on. Based solely on dirt TimeformUS Speed Figures, Speed Boat Beach holds the advantage, but he ran on dirt only once.

Speed Boat Beach earned a huge 120 on TimeformUS when breaking his maiden on dirt, but the number came in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint. Then Speed Boat Beach oddly ran on turf in his three starts afterwards, which makes it impossible to use his other speed figures for analysis.

When Havnameltdown won the San Vicente last month, he earned a mild 111 on TimeformUS. Before that, Havnameltdown earned a 114 for capturing the Bob Hope and a 114 for his second in the Del Mar Futurity.

On his return to dirt, Speed Boat Beach could revert to his maiden speed figure. But again, there is no direct evidence he will run a race that fast at one mile or that the figure is even useful for handicapping his form at this point. Sometimes horses cannot transfer big 5 1/2-furlong speed figures to route distances or even to longer sprints.

If forced to pick one horse with the speed figure edge, then yes, Speed Boat Beach did earn the 120 on TimeformUS to give him the advantage. It feels like the ceiling is higher for him at the moment.

In terms of running style, Speed Boat Beach offers a little more speed. Speed Boat Beach can either set the pace, as he did in his maiden win, or sit near the pacesetter, as he did on turf when he won the Cecil B. DeMille.

Havnameltdown can either set the pace or sit off another horse as well. In his first two starts, Havnameltdown set the pace on his way to victory before chasing Cave Rock around the track in second in the Del Mar Futurity in his third start.

Afterward, Havnameltdown made use of stalking tactics when he won the Bob Hope in November before reverting back to setting the pace in the San Vicente last month. It depends on what the bettor wants here. Speed Boat Beach feels likely to get sent to the lead, and Havnameltdown offers slightly more versatility.  

If Havnameltdown holds one more edge unrelated to those three main categories, it is that he raced more recently in the San Vicente last month. Speed Boat Beach last competed in the Cecil B. DeMille in early December. Baffert also entered Speed Boat Beach in the Sham Stakes (G3) last month before opting to scratch on the day of the race.  

Perhaps the best betting strategy is to find a foreigner who can beat the two Baffert entries. Otherwise, it seems like Saudi Derby players might need to use both Baffert 3-year-olds somehow or just pick the one with higher odds during live wagering to receive the best value.