Lakers vs. Warriors Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will Golden State Claim Must-Win Game 2?

After the Los Angeles Lakers stole the first contest in this series, the Golden State Warriors can’t afford to drop Game 2 at home on Thursday. Read on for our Lakers vs. Warriors prediction based on the best NBA odds.

They say styles make fights, and that was never more obvious than in Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinal series. The Warriors attempted 53 3-pointers (making 21 of them), while the Lakers attacked the rim and got to the free-throw line. 

In the end, the vintage style of play won, as Los Angeles came through with a 117-112 victory. However, we're betting on a bounce-back performance from the Warriors - by doing what they do best - with our favorite play for Game 2.

Here is our best Lakers vs. Warriors prediction (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lakers vs. Warriors prediction

Jordan Poole Over 1.5 3-pointers (-163 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Golden State fans are still probably wondering what would have happened if Jordan Poole didn't take that long 3-pointer in the closing seconds of Game 1. Of course, that bold decision took away from what was a really strong performance by the reserve guard.

Poole finished with 21 points on 7-of-15 shooting, which included a 6-for-11 effort from long range. This came after he scored a total of 25 points over the final three games of the first-round series. The 30 minutes by Poole were also a postseason high.

I don't think his big game happened by accident. The Lakers ranked 25th in the league this year in 3-pointers allowed, giving up an average of 36.5 triples per contest. More importantly, Los Angeles deliberately lets certain players shoot a bit more. I'm looking at you, Dillon Brooks.

Poole, of course, is a much better shooter than Brooks. But the Lakers will take their chances with his looks compared to the likes of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. That's why D'Angelo Russell and Dennis Schroder handled a bulk of the Poole assignment, per a defensive matchup tool by Saurabh Rane, whereas Austin Reaves defended Thompson and Jarred Vanderbilt guarded Curry.

Thompson and/or Curry might very well go off in Game 2, but that's why their 3-point props are set at 4.5 and 5.5, respectively. We will take the lower line on Poole, who's averaging 2.6 3-pointers per contest this year and has something to prove after how Game 1 ended.

Lakers vs. Warriors best odds

Caesars (-163)

Don't be afraid of the juice, as you have to pay a pricey vig to take the Over on this prop at all of our best sportsbooks. We think this is playable at -180 or better, so Caesars offers a nice discount on this prop.

If you are looking for a better payout, FanDuel is offering an alternate line of three-plus 3-pointers for Poole at +175. A same-game parlay of Poole to finish with multiple 3-pointers in a Warriors win has a +107 payout at Caesars, as well.

We believe in both plus-money options as three-star recommendations, though this is a four-star pick as a straight wager.

Lakers vs. Warriors odds

Lakers vs. Warriors odds analysis

The Warriors opened as 5-point favorites, but the spread has moved plenty in their favor. They are now laying -6.5 at the best NBA betting sites, which is largely due to the market believing the defending champs have more to play for.

The total started at 227.5 and has dropped down to 227 at the best sports betting sites.

Lakers vs. Warriors game info

• Date: Thursday, May 4, 9 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Lakers-Warriors pick made 05/04/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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