Lazio vs Bayern Munich tips & Champions League predictions

The Eagles are playing in the knockout phase of the Champions League for just the third time and were dumped out by Bayern the last time they reached the round of 16 in 2020/21.

But Maurizio Sarri’s men have an excellent record at home this season and warmed up for the first leg at the Stadio Olimpico with a 3-1 win in Cagliari. 

They approach Wednesday’s game in good spirits, unlike the visitors, who will need to be careful if they are to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time under Tuchel.

Lazio a lively home underdog

Only two sides have beaten Lazio at home this season, Inter Milan and Genoa, with the latter’s victory coming way back in August. 

In the 15 games since then, only Serie A leaders Inter have bested Sarri’s men on their own patch and that makes Bayern’s odds-on price for this first leg in the Champions League odds pretty unappealing.

A positive reaction is expected from the German outfit following their weekend woes with senior players furious at the performance, but it can't be understated how big of an improvement will be needed from Saturday before they are considered backable away from home in Europe at their current odds.

Tuchel experimented with a back three featuring Eric Dier against Leverkusen too, but is expected to revert to their usual four-man defence in Rome.

Joshua Kimmich may come back into the side but Tuchel doesn’t have too many other options to freshen up his team with Alphonso Davies, Kingsley Coman, Konrad Laimer and Serge Gnabry amongst a large group of players currently unavailable through injury.

What’s left isn’t bad and is certainly capable of much better than we saw on Saturday. After all, Bayern won five out of six games in the group stage, including all three away matches, and are one of just four sides at single figures in the Champions League outright betting.

No player has been involved in more goals in the Champions League this season than Harry Kane, who has had a hand in seven goals, netting four in the group games. The England skipper has scored 28 times in total for Bayern and will likely have Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala playing just behind him. 

That’s quite a strikeforce to test a Lazio defence that kept two clean sheets in six games when finishing runners-up to Atletico Madrid in Group E. 

They went unbeaten at home in the group stage, extending an impressive record of just one defeat in their last 12 home European matches.

However, let’s not get too carried away with Lazio’s chances of pulling off the upset; this is, after all, a team sat in eighth place in Serie A that had gone three games without a win before the victory over Cagliari. 

They’ve struggled to score at home in Serie A too, netting 12 goals in 11 games, while Bayern have lost two of their last 32 away Champions League matches.

While stranger things have happened in football than Lazio beating Bayern, it would be quite the turn up and it may be wise to take a cautious approach when taking on the struggling Bavarians.

Backing Lazio +1 on the Asian handicap on gambling sites may be the best approach. By taking them on the Asian handicap, the bet will win if Lazio are victorious or the game is drawn, while your stake will be returned if they lose by one goal. A Bayern win by two or more goals results in the bet losing.

Lazio vs Bayern tips: Immobile undervalued

Ciro Immobile celebrated a landmark goal at the weekend as he became just the eighth player to score 200 goals in Serie A. It took Lazio’s captain only 341 games to reach a double-century, and yet some bookmakers don’t expect him to have a big role in Wednesday’s game.

While certain betting apps show Immobile at 1/2 to have a shot on target, bet365 are offering odds of 10/11, which may turn out to be a generous price if the veteran striker can maintain his recent good form.

Immobile has scored three times in the Champions League this season, taking his tally in the competition to eight in 11 games for Lazio. 

The 33-year-old is Lazio’s leading scorer having bagged in each of his last two domestic matches and has had at least one shot on target in five of his last nine games.

He’s Lazio’s best hope of getting a goal in the first leg and can at least test Manuel Neuer in the Bayern goal.

Eagles could get stuck in

Only Lens in the Champions League and Lecce in Serie A have collected more cards than Lazio in those competitions this season with Sarri’s men not afraid of the physical side of the game. 

They’ve amassed more yellow cards than their opponents in the last six Serie A games and their eagerness to make an impact in the first leg against Bayern may result in them falling foul of French referee Francois Letexier.

While Lazio are averaging 3.5 cards per game in the Champions League, Bayern have collected eight cards in total, the third fewest in the competition.

The Bavarians have collected more than two cards in a game once in their last 17 outings in all competitions and the hosts to receive the most cards in the game at 26/25 with Unibet rounds out our Lazio vs Bayern Munich predictions.

Earn free bets by wagering on the Champions League

Betfred are running an exciting promotion during Wednesday's Champions League last-16 matches with new and existing customers able to earn a £5 free bet.

To secure a free bet, wager £10 or more in-play on either of Wednesday's Champions League games at odds of 1/2 or greater. In return, Betfred will give you a £5 free bet to use in-play on either a Europa League or Europa Conference League game on Thursday.

As well as their Champions League offer, Betfred are giving new customers a £40 welcome bonus when they open an account using the Betfred promo codeWELCOME40. 

You'll then need to deposit and wager a minimum of £10 on your first bet. Once the qualifying bet has been settled, you'll be credited with £30 in free bets to use on at the sportsbook, as well as a £10 bonus for the bookmaker's online casino UK.

Remember to check the terms and conditions on any offers before getting involved and if you do have a bet on the Champions League, or any other event, always gamble responsibly. 

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.