Bayern Munich vs. Lazio odds: Champions League prediction

Bayern Munich is one of European football's true titans. The Bundesliga giants have been one of the continent's most successful clubs in recent decades, both domestically and internationally. The Bavarians have reached the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League in 12 of their last 14 attempts, which highlights the aforementioned achievements perfectly.

Can Lazio complete the UCL upset of Bayern Munich?

Therefore, it's understandable that oddsmakers have listed them as the favorites to go through this round, despite finding themselves in a 1-0 hole ahead of the second leg. This begs the question: is there value in betting on Lazio to advance given the Italian side's one-goal advantage with 90 minutes to play?

FanDuel Sportsbook currently lists Bayern Munich as a -265 favorite to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals. Aside from history, there hasn't been much to justify this heavily juiced line.

Die Roten have won just once in their last five outings, a 2-1 victory over the Bundesliga's fifth-placed RB Leipzig. Otherwise, Thomas Tuchel's men have lost 3-0 to Bayer Leverkusen, 1-0 to the aforementioned Italian side and 3-2 to VfL Bochum, which sits just outside of the relegation spots in the German top flight. Bayern Munich also drew 2-2 with SC Freiburg its last time out.

Injuries have certainly contributed to the 'downfall' of the once great German club. Die Roten's struggles also date back to last season when there was large turnover at nearly every level within the club's hierarchy, as well as some shakeups to the squad. This has led to the team never meshing well under Tuchel, despite falling into an 11th consecutive Bundesliga title.

The German manager's gegenpressing style requires each and every player to buy in, especially the forwards, who do the most work to try and win the ball back high up the pitch. This is perhaps where the Bavarians have fallen short as there have been rifts in the dressing room.

There are even whispers that Tuchel — who is already departing at the end of the campaign — could be given his marching orders early if Bayern Munich fails to reach the last eight in Europe's premier competition.

This all needs to come full circle, though, so how does it translate to potential value in betting on Lazio? Bettors can get Le Aquile at +225 to go through to the Champions League quarterfinals for the first time since 1999/2000. However, be warned, Maurizio Sarri's men are also in terrible form right now.

Lazio has actually picked up more red cards (two) than wins (one) since stunning Bayern Munich during the first leg in the Italian capital. Sarri's side has also struggled to buy into his 'Sarriball' tactics this season as it sits ninth in Serie A.

The Champions League rumble in Rome saw Bayern Munich control 61% of the possession away from home. It was Die Roten's inability to put shots on target that cost them in the end. Expect the Germans to suffocate possession even more drastically at the Allianz Arena.

Harry Kane's inclusion in the Bayern Munich XI gives the hosts a luxury that the visitors simply cannot afford: an elite goalscorer. Ciro Immobile, while he deserves our respect, has too many question marks surrounding his ability to counter clinically at the age of 34. The same goes for Pedro, who is 36.

Usually, I'd recommend siding with the squad that has a one-goal advantage with one leg remaining. In this situation, though, I think it's best to stay away from betting against Bayern Munich. If you're going to fade the Bavarians, you'll have plenty of opportunities to do that going forward.