Bayern vs Lazio predictions & Champions League tips
Tuchel is a manager under pressure after his side failed to beat Freiburg last time out. A premature exit from the Champions League would certainly lead to louder calls for him to go earlier than his planned departure in the summer.
Lazio are bidding to reach the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time since 2000. However, their form since beating Bayern in the first leg is a concern, losing three out of four in Serie A, including a 1-0 home defeat to AC Milan last time out.
Despite their issues, Bayern are both odds-on to win and qualify for the next stage with football betting sites, with a price of 11/1 available for Lazio to triumph on the night and 11/5 to advance. Here are our predictions, made using the latest Champions League odds.
Bayern to respond to setback
Tuchel’s men left their shooting boots at home in the first leg before crashing to a narrow defeat. It was one of those days for Bayern in front of goal as they mustered 17 attempts but failed to hit the target with a single effort.
Lazio made them pay from the spot as Immobile fired in and now the Italian outfit have a lead to defend at Allianz Arena.
Goals have not been an issue for Bayern since, scoring six in their last three in the Bundesliga. The problems have come at the other end, where they’ve shipped six and failed to keep a clean sheet.
Tuchel is struggling to find the right balance with his team, despite boasting Harry Kane in the final third and quality at the back, albeit Upamecano will be missing for the second leg due to suspension.
Bayern haven't lost a Champions League home game since 2021, a 3-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain. And although Lazio were efficient in the first leg, they lost two of their three away games in the group stage.
Their recent form on the road against stronger teams is perhaps why betting sites are so confident Tuchel’s side will progress. Although this is not a dominant Bayern team, we’re backing them to get the job done on the night and win by two goals at odds of 10/3 with bet365.
Kane to rise to the occasion
The headlines have already been written claiming that Kane has cursed the German outfit. It’s simply coincidence that Bayern’s longstanding dominance of the Bundesliga looks to be coming to an end in the season that the England captain joined.
Kane’s performances have allowed his team to at least compete for the crown, scoring 27 goals in 25 appearances. There has not been overwhelming support from his team-mates, while Tuchel’s tactics and performances in the press have not instilled confidence in the ranks.
Still, Kane could do with a goal to silence those critics and help steer his team into the Champions League quarter-finals, improving on his record of four goals in seven Champions League appearances this season.
He was one of many who struggled in the Stadio Olimpico, failing to hit the target with any of his four efforts at goal.
Since then, he has notched a match-winning brace against Leipzig and found the net in a defeat to Bochum. Gambling sites have priced up Kane at 8/11 to score any time, but we like the value on him to settle a few Bayern nerves by scoring the first goal at 12/5 with bet365.
Bayern attack to up the ante
After such a disappointing showing in Rome, Bayern will be out to prove a point in the final third on home soil.
The fact they need to score should allow Tuchel to take the shackles off his players and go for it against the Serie A side. It will not be straightforward as domestically Lazio have one of the best defensive records in Italy, conceding only 29 goals in 27 league matches.
Maurizio Sarri’s men are well drilled, but the Allianz Arena can be an intimidating place where gameplans can be thrown out of the window with the ferocity of Bayern attacks.
Kane, Jamal Musiala, Thomas Muller, Mathys Tel and perhaps Leroy Sane, if he is deemed fit, will be pressing in and around the final third.
The first leg was the only time this season Bayern have failed to hit the target in a game. In contrast, they’ve mustered seven shots on target or more on 17 occasions this term. After looking at betting apps, we’re backing them to make it 18 at odds of 21/20 with BetMGM.
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Read all the terms and conditions of talkSPORT BET’s welcome offer before creating an account. If you do bet on the Champions League, gamble responsibly.
Simon Sinclair is an experienced sports journalist, who has written for national publications for football, cricket, NFL and many more. He contributes tips on a wide range of sports for The Independent.
