Lebanon vs Canada Predictions & Odds

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25 August 2023

RJ Barrett looked great during pre-tournament games and we like the lefty guard to cause trouble on the court when Canada takes on a weak Lebanese side. Read more in our latest FIBA World Cup betting picks.

The dust has settled on the first two days of the FIBA 2023 World Cup, and while things mostly played out as expected, the biggest shock came in Canada’s dominant win over Rudy Gobert and France. Not only did Canada win as slight underdogs, but their 30-point blowout was their largest margin of victory in program history.

Canada’s quest for their first World Cup medal in program history continues on Sunday as they face off against fellow Group H hopeful Lebanon. The Lebanese tournament fortunes have started off on the other end of the spectrum, having been utterly blitzed by a Latvian team missing Kristaps Porzingis.

FIBA World Cup odds all point toward another walkover by the Canucks, and our FIBA picks and predictions for Lebanon vs. Canada believe that it will be RJ Barrett helping to lead the charge.

Lebanon vs Canada odds

Lebanon vs Canada picks and predictions

Canada’s win over France surely got the rest of the world’s attention. After so many “coulda, woulda, shoulda” moments on the international stage in what has supposedly been the Golden Age for Canadian men’s basketball, it finally came to fruition as they throttled an incredibly solid French national team.

But while eyes were on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dillon Brooks, and Kelly Olynyk having game-deciding performances, the spotlight was less kind to New York Knicks wing RJ Barrett.

RJ struggles against elite rim protection, so it was not a surprise to see him have an off-game against Gobert and France. Rudy may be slipping a little with age, but he remains an intimidating presence inside, with uncanny timing and unparalleled length. For a player who wants to make their living on layups, he’s a tough nut to crack.

RJ was forced to the perimeter from the jump and never caught any rhythm. Much has been made about Barrett reworking his shot mechanics this summer, but if the proof of the pudding is in the eating, the game against France left a rotten taste. Despite Canada’s dominance as a team, RJ went just 1-10 from the field — including 1-7 from downtown.

But Barrett dominated in the tune-up games prior to the World Cup, not only showcasing an improved shot but also leaning into the foundation of his game: hard drives to the basket. RJ came into the NBA an almost comically left-handed player and has since worked studiously to improve his ability to drive and finish with his non-dominant hand.

The thing is though, opposing teams at the FIBA level have not been nearly as disciplined at taking away his left-handed drives as NBA opponents. If guards let RJ get left or if a team doesn’t have a wing strong enough to stop him from getting there, it’s curtains. Even against teams with plenty of NBA talent including Spain and Germany, Barrett was getting to his preferred spots and finishing through or around contact with ease.

Lebanon is one of the more NBA-level talent bereft teams in the tournament. Even against Latvia, they were at a noticeable size and strength disadvantage. Barrett is going to be motivated to break out after his dud against France, and it’s not clear that anyone on Lebanon has the combination of size, speed, and discipline to stop him.

This line is far too down on Barrett after one bad game against one particularly poor defensive matchup. Expect RJ to reset the narrative with a strong performance on Sunday.

My best bet: RJ Barrett Over 15.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

Lebanon vs Canada spread and Over/Under analysis

It is no exaggeration to say that Canada is coming off their biggest win in program history — a 30-point demolition of France that began when they turned on the defensive pressure in the second half. While the Canadians have some strong offensive talents (hello SGA), it’s their versatility and physicality defensively that holds the key to their World Cup ceiling.

After that performance, it’s not totally surprising to find that the largest spread of the tournament so far belongs not to the USA but rather to Canada, favored to win Sunday’s game by a staggering 38.5 points at most sportsbooks. That is both a nod of respect to what Canada has proven their capable of, and a reflection of the poor showing the Lebanese side gave in their first tilt against Latvia.

There are levels to FIBA play. Canada beat France in a walk, but Latvia would have been the clear third-ranked team in Group H and they pounded Lebanon by 39 points. The way that Latvia plays — all pace and 3-point shooting — is more conducive to that level of blowout than perhaps the way Canada does, but the size and athletic gap is going to be stark in this one. The Latvian players dwarfed some of the Lebanese guards, so players like RJ, Shai, and even Brooks are going to able to play bully ball.

The total has come in at 175.5, and as per my same-game parlay analysis, I think that is a touch too high. While Canada can score in bunches, they are not a high-volume 3-point shooting team and I don’t expect Lebanon to get many clean looks from the perimeter either.

The way the Canadian guards shut the tap off on a very good French offense makes me think it’s going to be a long night for Lebanon’s primary options, which include Omari Spellman and Sergio El Darwich.

For bettors looking at the spread or total plays for Sunday’s game, Caesars Sportsbook is offering a 25% odds boost for FIBA tournament games featuring one of Canada or the United States sides. That can turn a -110 bet into +114 (up to $50) which is a nice way to game some additional expected value.