Canada vs Brazil Predictions & Odds

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31 August 2023

When Canada & Brazil tangle at the FIBA World Cup on Friday, it'll be a meeting of major importance. Not only is a place in the knockout rounds on the line, the winner will be a step closer to an automatic Olympic spot. Our FIBA picks give Canada the edge.

The second phase of the 2023 FIBA World Cup is underway, and on Friday, Canada and Brazil face off in a game with higher stakes than most. Not only are both teams striving to advance to the knockout rounds of the World Cup, but they’re also attempting to be one of the top two finishers from the Americas at the tournament to win an automatic bid to the Olympic games in Paris next summer.

Behind Shai-Gilgeous Alexander’s superstar play, Canada has been one of the stories of the tournament. Brazil might need a minor miracle to upset Canada and beat the FIBA World Cup odds.

Our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for Canada vs. Brazil believe the Canadian defense is going to prove decisive in Friday’s match.

Canada vs Brazil odds

Canada vs Brazil picks and predictions

It’s a year of firsts for Canadian men’s basketball. Canada had never won their group at the World Cup before, nor had they led the field in point differential. And while it’s not as easy to quantify given the paucity of official FIBA statistics, they’ve never looked like the best defense in the world before either.

Canada has made it their purpose in life to make these games miserable for opposing ball handlers. They’re picking up teams early and pressuring the ball, sometimes full court, and banking on their ability to recover when beat. This strategy saw them weather some early storms against France and Latvia before ultimately tiring out and routing their opponent.

Between Dillon Brooks, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, RJ Barrett, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker this is the strongest collection of perimeter defenders in the tournament, and they’ve shown remarkable collective will and connectivity this summer. Just as opponents are breathing a sigh of relief when Brooks checks out, they’re faced with a basketball player in a linebacker’s body in Dort, or the tenacity and length of Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Canada is comfortable switching but they’re also not soft switching. To my eyes, they’re beginning to resemble the 2019 Toronto Raptors, one of the best defenses of the modern NBA era. Physically imposing, creative, and capable of on-the-fly adjustments that flummox their opponents. Even Kelly Olynyk, not renowned for his defense, has made multiple huge recovery blocks.

They’re also incredibly versatile defensively with Brooks and Dort legitimately comfortable guarding one through four. They’re capable of beating up point guards and banging with power forwards due to their powerful frames, lateral movement, and best-in-class anticipation.

And then on top of all that, they’re going to have the best player in almost every game because of SGA. Despite his unique game, Shai is an incredibly malleable player, someone who would help any team he plays for.

Some players in that archetype get labeled basketball chameleons, capable of blending in seamlessly with any scheme environment. But SGA is more akin to a basketball shapeshifter. Not only does he provide his team with what they need at any given moment, but he also forces opposing teams to play him on his terms by putting pressure on their weakest points.

SGA and Team Canada’s defense has led the way through the tournament so far, and I’m expecting more of the same against an overmatched Brazil squad.

My best bet: Canada -18.5 (-110 at bet365)

Canada vs Brazil same-game parlay

Canada -18.5

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20+ points

Brazil team total Under 78.5 points

For today’s same game parlay, we’re keeping simple by combining a Canada cover of the -18.5 point spread with 20+ points from SGA with Brazil under 78.5 points.

Shai is averaging 22 points per game in the tournament, having scored 27 twice, and just 12 once. Critically, the 12-point showing was the blowout game against Lebanon when the starters played limited minutes and was not a reflection of poor play on Shai’s behalf. I’m expecting this game to be more competitive than that one, which means SGA is going to step up and do his part.

And I’ve waxed poetic about how outstanding the Canadian defense is already, but it’s also worth noting that Brazil is missing one of their key offensive contributors in Raul Neto. Neto (who plays for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA) tore his patellar tendon in the opening game against Iran, and he was their only NBA-caliber guard. Without him, Brazil is going to struggle mightily to create in the halfcourt against Canada’s stellar perimeter defenders.

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Canada vs Brazil spread and Over/Under analysis

Canada opened as 18.5-point favorites for Friday’s tilt against Brazil, and that’s now risen as high as -19.5 at some sportsbooks. Canada’s defense might be the reason I’m so bullish on them in this matchup, but it warrants saying that despite Team USA having a much weaker bracket, Canada is also the top-scoring team in the tournament.

They’re averaging a blistering 108 points per game on 54.8% from the field and 42.9% from three, with their only blemish coming with some oddly shaky shooting at the foul line.

Brazil went 2-1 in the first group stage, with an impressive showing against Iran, a nip and tuck win over the Ivory Coast, and a blowout loss to defending world champion Spain. That spread of performances is a pretty fair reflection of Brazil’s overall quality. They’re capable of dominating the truly bad teams, they’re capable of losing to average ones, and they’re a clear step down from the legit contenders like Spain and of course, Canada. I was able to get this at -18.5 but I’d be comfortable betting it up to -20.5.

The total for Canada vs. Brazil opened between 179 and 179.5 but has since risen as high as 180.5. While I’m predicting a strong defensive showing from Canada, that does not necessarily mean the Under is a winning bet.

Canada’s guards are going to be the story of this game. They dwarf the Brazilian players not only in stature, but in skill level, and it’s difficult to see how Brazil shakes loose to find any real kind of rhythm.

Betting the Under feels perilous however because of how much emphasis head coach Jordi Fernandez has put on transition offense. Canada will get a lot of stops, but those will frequently turn into transition baskets. Fast breaks are not only highly efficient possessions, but they also lead to a greater number of possessions overall. Even a relatively inefficient performance from Brazil could still see this go Over.