Canada vs Latvia Predictions & Odds

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28 August 2023

In a shocking twist of events, Canada vs. Latvia is now a match to decide who will top Group H with an unbeaten record. Our FIBA betting picks suggest this game will be closer than the spread indicates and one underrated Latvian will lead the way.

While most of the FIBA World Cup results have largely gone chalk so far, Group H has been the lone exception. The pre-tournament FIBA World Cup odds had France as one of the inner circle challengers to the USA but with a pair of losses to Canada and Latvia they have been eliminated just two games into the tournament.

Now Canada and Latvia play each other on Tuesday, August 29, for the right to be the only undefeated team exiting Group H.

Our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for Canada vs. Latvia believe this game will be more hotly contested than oddsmakers believe.

Canada vs Latvia odds

Canada vs Latvia picks and predictions

Most observers thought Latvia’s World Cup ambitions were dead on arrival when they were placed in a group with France and Canada, and later when Kristaps Porzingis was forced to withdraw that seemed to be the final nail in the coffin. Instead, Latvia has turned in a pair of impressive performances, a 39-point blowout win over an overmatched Lebanon followed by the upset of the tournament so far when they knocked off France and booked their ticket to the next phase.

Canada is clearly much better than Latvia, and they’ve done nothing so far in this tournament to warrant any skepticism. However, this line does not respect Latvia enough to my mind.

Latvia is a strong foil to Canada due to their style of play. Latvia’s coaches are clearly disciples of the Mike D’Antoni 'Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns', and that plays directly to their team’s greatest strength, which is 3-point shooting.

They play an ultra-fast paced game, predicated on rapid ball movement and getting up gobs of shots from the perimeter. Their players have the ultimate greenlight to take any three as soon as the opportunity presents itself, and they show zero hesitation bombing away even in transition.

That creates a level of offensive variance that can allow them to compete with, and as was the case with France, outright defeat teams that are clearly more talented then them.

The reason that formula is particularly troublesome to a team like Canada is that defending that style of play requires a total team effort. Defending movement shooting and a spread floor takes a degree of cohesion and togetherness that Canada has only shown brief flashes of. Unlike some FIBA teams that have played together internationally for years, this version of the Canadian team is functionally brand new.

Against France and Lebanon, Canada’s defensive lapses were not automatically punished to the degree they will be should the Latvian side stay hot from the outside. They also don’t have obvious players to help off of, which means that for the Canadian players who struggle with keeping their man in front or navigating screens, Latvia should generate a lot of quality looks.

So, while Canada has been the most impressive performer of the tournament so far, I believe Latvia has the formula to at least keep things interesting through large stretches of Tuesday’s game.

My best bet: Latvia +18.5 (-120 at Betway)

Canada vs Latvia same-game parlay

Latvia +17.5

Over 177.5

Davis Bertans 10+ points

For my same-game parlay for Canada vs. Latvia, we’re combining a Latvia cover with the Over at 177.5 as well as 10+ points from Davis Bertans. Latvia and Canada have both had impressive offensive showings so far, and I believe they’re both well-suited to continue that trend against each other. Latvia lost their best rim protector when Porzingis had to withdraw, and Canada loves to attack the rim. Latvia will keep Canada on their toes with ball movement and quick trigger threes.

For his part, Bertans is averaging 8.5 3-point attempts and is hitting them at a 41.2% clip in the tournament. Bertans’ defensive foibles limit his utility in the NBA, but Latvia leans all offense to compensate, and Bertans is a difficult cover as an elite shooter at a legit 6-foot-10. Canada’s big man defenders haven’t faced anyone like Bertans through their exhibition or tournament play so far, and I expect Bertans to rack up some points while they adjust to the unique problem he poses.

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Canada vs Latvia spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for Tuesday is available between -17.5 and -18.5 in favor of Canada. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the tournament MVPs so far, but the truly impressive thing is how unselfish he and the entire team have been. While Team USA is struggling with some internal disagreements over roles and usage, the stars on Canada have all sublimated themselves to the greater benefit of the team without complaint.

So I’m certainly not going as far as to call a Latvia upset, but I do think Canada is in for a bit of shellshock against Latvia after their two games against France and Lebanon. Those teams played at a languid pace and did not have the kind of offensive firepower that Latvia does. A slow start, a few turnovers, or a couple defensive lapses and this Latvian team can blitz them for a 12-0 run in the blink of an eye. That should be enough to keep things within range of this line.

Tuesday’s total between Canada and Latvia came in at 177.5 at most sportsbooks. This matchup promises to intrigue because it’s a classic clash of styles. The Canadians have built their foundation on defense and crushed France and Lebanon by getting out on the run after defensive rebounds or forced turnovers. That should remain effective against Latvia, who face a sizeable strength and speed gap against Canada’s best players.

But Latvia will be able to generate quality looks of their own, and the pace of this game should be among the highest of the tournament so far. With Canada attacking the rim and getting to the line and Latvia lighting it up from outside, I would lean Over even at this sizeable number.