Liberty vs. Oregon Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The Liberty Flames will face the Oregon Ducks on Monday for the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. Kickoff is slated for 1:00 PM Eastern. Liberty finished the season undefeated at 13-0. Oregon last fell in the Pac12 title game to Washington.
Let's dive in.
Liberty Looks To Pull The Upset
The Flames offense continued to roll in the Conference USA championship. Liberty put up 49 points, which was their third straight game of at least 40. The offense generated over 700 yards of offense and had just nine 3rd downs. Kaidon Salter went 20-25 for 319 yards and two scores, but it was the ground attack that really separated Liberty. Salter added a rushing score and had 165 ground yards. Billy Lucas and Aaron Bedgood shared the backfield and they rushed for 86 and 72 yards, respectively. The defense logged an interception.
Liberty comes into this game averaging 40.8 points per contest, which is good for 5th in the nation. The potent offense has generated over seven yards per play and has been one of the best teams in America on third down. With nearly 50% of their third down tries converting, the Flames have been able to routinely move the ball up and down the field. Liberty hasn't been too consistent in the red zone, as they are coming away with a touchdown on just over 82% of their tries. Fortunately the offense has been able to score from beyond the 20. The ground attack has been the bread and butter for the Flames. Not only do they run the ball at one of the highest rates in the country, but the mobility of Salter has helped them garner over six yards per carry, which is 2nd in America. Salter has also been able to hit his wideouts downfield as they are completing throws for an average depth of 9.9 yards. The drawback of slinging the ball downfield has been the drop in completion percentage. Being efficient in the pocket will be paramount here as the Ducks have a fierce pass rush.
On the defensive end of the field, Liberty is allowing 22.7 points per game, which is 31st in the country. The Flames are allowing right around 5.5 yards per play, which is 55th in the nation. They've been stronger in the red zone as opponents have come away with touchdowns on right under 81% of their tries. They will certainly have their hands full here as the Oregon offense has been very efficient inside the 20's. The ground defense has been allowing roughly four yards per carry and, due to the Flames offense often leaving the defense with the lead, they haven't been ran on too often. Through the air, opposing quarterbacks are completing throws around 57% of the time, which is top 25 in the nation. Those completions have an average depth of 6.8 yards, which has been indicative of the Flames getting beaten over the top at times. The secondary has been able to come away with interceptions, and they'll surely look to steal some passes here.
Ducks With Unfinished Business
After falling to Washington for the second time this season, the Ducks CFP hopes were officially shattered. Oregon lost those those two games by a combined six points. Oregon was down 20-10 at the half, but put up a strong 3rd quarter, taking a 24-20 lead. The offense ran out of steam, and the defense couldn't slow the Huskies. The Ducks converted just 3-10 on 3rd down, but Bo Nix tossed for three scores and 239 yards. The ground game was limited as Nix also led the rushing attack. Lead back, Bucky Irving had 20 yards on nine carries.
Oregon comes into this game averaging 41.4 points per contest, which is good for 4th in the country. The Ducks have generated 7.5 yards per play which has helped them holster one of the best 3rd down rates in America. In the red zone, the Ducks have also been effective. They sit top 50 in the country and are getting touchdowns on nearly 87% of their trips inside the 20s. Nix has demonstrated his arm on several occasions this season, and his 76.3% completion rate leads all of college football. Those throws have also been completed for an average depth of 9.4 yards. As a result, the Ducks have continued to air the ball out at one of the highest rates in the country. The offensive line has provided solid protection, but Nix has also been a threat on the ground. The ground attack has still managed 5.5 yards per carry and around 170 yards per game. The ground attack will need to shoulder some of the load here as the Ducks were limited on the ground in the Pac12 title game, which forced them to be one dimensional.
On the defensive end of the field, the Ducks are allowing 18.2 points per game, which is good for 12th in the country. Oregon has been holding opponents to under five yards per play, which has been helped them get off the field on 3rd downs. On the season, Oregon allowed opponents to move the sticks on under 37% of their 3rd down tries, but that staunch defense didn't exactly translate to the red zone. As it is, foes have come away with a touchdown on nearly 85% of their trips inside the 20s, and that could spell trouble against the potent offense of Liberty. The Ducks have defended the ground attack very well, holding opponents to under 3.5 yards per tote and under 100 yards per game. The secondary has been around average in terms of forcing turnovers, but the pass rush has been terrific in terms of getting to the quarterback. I expect Oregon to get into the backfield here.
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Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
This is certainly a step up for the Flames, and given the stout run defense of the Ducks, I expect them to frustrate Liberty offensively here. Oregon should be able to move the ball down the field, and Nix' national high completion rate should keep this offense on the field as they march down against what has been an absent pass rush from Liberty. If pressured in the pocket, Nix has demonstrated his ability to use his legs and I expect him to use them, particularly in the red zone.
Oregon -16.5
Prediction: Oregon -16.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
Both of these offenses are averaging over 40 points per game, and we should expect them to continue to find success again here. Liberty has been able to stretch the field and Salter can scramble out of the pocket to keep drives alive. Likewise, Oregon's secondary hasn't been too keen on coming away with interceptions and their red zone defense has been suspect at times. As touched on, Nix has the highest completion rate in football, and with this wide receiver group, he should be able to keep the sticks moving. Look for both offenses to find ways to score when in the red zone, and a few big play touchdowns as well.
Over 67.5
Prediction: Over 67.5
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