Washington vs Oregon Prediction: Over/Under Best Bet, Week 11
This season I'll break down college football's biggest games and give out bets from each one. This week I'm looking at the Pac-12 clash between Washington and Oregon.
Both defenses are likely to struggle getting off the field, so take the over at 72.5 points.
Washington is a traditional spread offense with a 59% pass rate. Michael Penix takes a dropback of three or more steps at 58% rate, the 20th highest rate in the FBS.
Oregon has a formidable pass rush, but Washington has an edge in other areas. Penix throws 15 or more yards downfield on 23.5% of his attempts, the 40th highest rate in FBS. Oregon's secondary often fails to hold up when the team is not generating pressure.
Washington and Oregon play each other in Week 11. Washington ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed and 34th in pressure generated. Oregon ranks 16th for pressure against traditional dropbacks.
Oregon's defense is ranked second in Pac-12 play with a high completion rate against throws 15-plus yards downfield. Oregon's run defense also ranks high. Washington will have to rely more heavily on the passing attack.
Washington and Oregon play each other in the week 11 of the Pac-12. Washington has a 39.5% completion rate allowed and a 28.9% ball-hawk rate. Oregon has 32.0% of completions allowed.
Washington's inability to generate untouched yardage severely limits their ability to get anything going on the ground. Cameron Davis averages 2.1 yards per attempt when contacted within two yards of the line of scrimmage, while Wayne Taulapapa averages two.0 yards.
Washington ranks 83rd in opponent-adjusted yards before contact and 44th in yards after contact allowed.
Oregon's offense is better than Washington's defense when it's on the field.
Oregon's rushing attack is among the most explosive in the nation. Bo Nix's passing game is effective after the catch. Washington's defense ranks 80th in yards after catch allowed. Washington vs Oregon is Over/Under bet, Week 11.
Washington and Oregon are going head-to-head in the Over/Under bet for the Week 11 game.
The over has been a winner in six of nine games for Oregon this season. The only under winners were against Georgia, Colorado, and Arizona. Oregon's defense allowed its opponents to bleed the clock with the run game. Washington has not shown an ability to control the time with its ground game, so that's not a concern in this matchup. Penix and Nix rank first and second in the lowest rate of producing plays of -1 EPA or worse.
