Lightning vs Oilers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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14 December 2023

Lightning vs Oilers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Oilers are the hottest team in the NHL right now and welcome the struggling Bolts into town. Vasilevskiy hasn't looked like himself since returning, and our NHL picks expect Edmonton to light him up.

The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday, and the Oil are sizable home favorites in the NHL odds.

Goaltending is often the difference between winning and losing, and the two tendies starting in this star-studded showdown will take the crease in utter opposite current form.

Tampa starter Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t found his Vezina-caliber game since returning from surgery, as his .894 SV% through eight contests is a far cry from the .919 mark he had over the previous six seasons. His 37.5% quality-start rate is also well off the average of 59.6% he posted in that same time frame.

On the flip side, Edmonton youngster Stuart Skinner sports a sterling .934 SV% and 1.70 GAA during his active seven-game winning streak. The fun part is neither netminder is as respectively bad or good as their recent results, and these teams both have a slew of gifted scorers jumping the boards.

So, the question is: Will it be Vasy bouncing back, or Skinner continuing to cruise at Rogers Place on Thursday night? Find out what I think in my free NHL picks for the Lightning vs. Oilers matchup on Thursday, December 14.

Lightning vs Oilers odds

Lightning vs Oilers predictions

With goaltending already a question mark for the Tampa Bay Lightning, it’s all the more discouraging that No. 1 defenseman Victor Hedman (upper body) didn’t practice Wednesday. While he hasn’t been officially ruled out, I’m not expecting him to lace them up tonight.

Hedman plays in all situations and leads the Lightning in minutes per game (23:39). His absence will test an already run-of-the-mill blueline corps even further against the No. 1 offense in my ratings. Making matters worse, Tampa has surrendered the third-most goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

With the chips stacked against the Lightning, there has been consistent moneyline movement toward the Edmonton Oilers since this game opened at SIA. Edmonton has moved from -155 to -175 as of Thursday morning.

My preference is always to bet the moneyline as opposed to the puck line or 60-minute markets, but we’ve missed the best number in all three. It’s often overlooked that the odds for all three markets are correlated, so the puck line and 60-minute numbers carry the same numerical risk and reward.

With all that in mind, I’m pivoting to a prebuilt parlay at SIA under the Win/Total tab: Oilers to win and Over 4.5 goals (-120).

The total for this game is a consensus 6.5, with the juice on the Over. Additionally, some sportsbooks are on the brink of moving it to 7.0 with the vig well above the -120 number SIA is listing.

Finally, returning to Hedman, I’m still confident in this bet if he does play. Playing against Connor McDavid and the Oilers is already a nightmare, but playing against them at less than 100% is even worse.

My best bet: Oilers to win and Over 4.5 goals (-120 at SIA)

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Lightning vs Oilers same-game parlay

Oilers moneylineOver 4.5 goals

Lightning Under 3.5 goals

I’d love to cook up a same-game parlay with longer odds, but this fits my handicap of this game the best. It matches my best bet, and I have Tampa projected to score 2.82 goals.

If you switch the Oilers moneyline to the -1.5 puck line the odds climb to +200, so if the added risk is worth 80 cents on the dollar to you, that’s an option to increase your return. Additionally, the Oilers' puck line and Over 5.5 goals is priced at +260.

Those are alternative options correlating with my handicap if you’re looking to beef up your payout.

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Lightning vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

As noted, there has been moneyline movement to the Edmonton side since this game opened with the Oilers a -155 home favorite at SIA. I expect there to be buyback on the Lightning if they approach a +150 underdog.

The consensus 6.5 total is flirting with a move to 7.0, and as discussed, the Over is carrying the higher vig. I would expect there to be buyback on the Under if the number did make the jump to 7.0, though.

Lightning vs Oilers betting trend to know

Edmonton has won five consecutive home games, and Tampa Bay has lost five of its past six on the road. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Oilers.

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