Lightning vs Panthers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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16 March 2024

Lightning vs Panthers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Sergei Bobrovsky is undefeated in his last four starts against Tampa Bay, and there's no reason to believe that streak will be snapped tonight when the red-hot Panthers host the Lightning.

The Florida Panthers host the Tampa Bay Lightning in an Atlantic Division tilt tonight. NHL odds have Florida as a moderate –169 favorite while the total sits at six or 6.5, depending on the book.

The Panthers have dominated this matchup over the past two seasons, winning each of the past four meetings by an average goal differential of +4.25. Will they take care of business again, or can Tampa keep this game close? Find out in my free NHL picks for Lightning vs. Panthers on Saturday, March 16.

Lightning vs Panthers odds

Lightning vs Panthers predictions

The Florida Panthers look to be in Cup form once again as they try to make it back to the Final in back-to-back years. This has been the best team in hockey over the past couple of months, winning 14 of its past 17 games.

Not only are the Panthers winning, but they are winning convincingly as nine of those 14 wins have come by at least a two-goal differential. There has not been a single weakness in any area of the game over this stretch, but let’s start with the goaltending as Sergei Bobrovsky is slated to guard the cage for Florida.

One of the hottest goaltenders in hockey, Bobrovsky has allowed two or fewer goals in 12 of his past 14 starts. He is 11-3 over that stretch with a commanding .939 SV% and 1.78 GAA. Seven of those 11 wins came by at least a two-goal margin, including a 9-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Speaking of the Bolts, Bobrovsky is 4-0 over his past four starts against them with a .950 SV% and 1.50 GAA.

Now, his job is certainly made easier by the fact that he plays behind one of the best two-way teams in hockey. At 5-on-5, the Panthers rank seventh in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) and fourth in expected goal differential per 60 minutes.

They rank higher than the Lightning in all three of those categories. Finally, 20 of Tampa’s past 24 losses have come by at least a two-goal difference.

My best bet: Panthers -1.5 (+145 at bet365)

Lightning vs Panthers same-game parlay

We already talked about Bobrovsky’s recent brilliance, which means we can still cash the –1.5 while also hitting the Under 6.5. First, just from a purely numerical perspective, the Panthers have covered both –1.5 and Under 6.5 in three of their past five wins.

Second, Tampa’s offense is due for major regression, which is a product of its unsustainable 11.7 shooting percentage. Because of this number, the Bolts rank sixth in goals scored per game despite only ranking 20th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Additionally, their first-ranked power play is likely to be nullified by Florida’s seventh-ranked penalty kill.

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Lightning vs Panthers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Panthers opened as a –162 favorite and were quickly bet up to -170. I expect the market to only push this line further, considering there is not a single advantage Tampa possesses in this game.

That brings us to the total, which opened at six. I believe there will be a lot of push-and-pull in this market, given that Florida is one of the best teams in the league offensively, defensively, and in net.