Penguins vs Lightning Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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30 November 2023

Penguins vs Lightning Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Nikita Kucherov has been making a case for the Hart Trophy in Tampa Bay, and our NHL betting picks believe the Lightning will lean on him once again when the Pittsburgh Penguins come to town on Thursday night.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Lightning and Penguins are the only two teams to win back-to-back Stanley Cups in the modern era, and Pittsburgh travels down to the Sunshine State to take on Tampa Bay on Thursday night as underdogs in the NHL odds.

Both teams have had a somewhat disappointing start, with the Bolts at 10-8-5 and the Pens at 10-10-1 through the first quarter of the season. They also haven’t been too great recently.

Pittsburgh has lost five of its past seven games, while Tampa Bay has lost three of its past four, including a back-to-back in Colorado and Arizona.

Which team will come away with two points in this Eastern Conference clash? Read on for our Penguins vs. Lightning NHL picks and predictions for Thursday, November 30.

Penguins vs Lightning odds

Penguins vs Lightning predictions

The Lightning did well to tread water through the first month of the season with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy on the shelf due to back surgery. A lot of that had to do with Nikita Kucherov regaining his form as a Hart Trophy odds candidate.

Kucherov leads the league with 37 points (15 goals, 22 assists) in 22 games this season. He also has a whopping 103 shots – an average of nearly five per contests.

The veteran winger is riding a seven-game point and assist streak, and has at least one point in 17 of 22 games this season. But we're going to look at his shots on goal NHL player prop for tonight.

Kucherov has at least four shots on goal in 17 of 22 games this season as well. In fact, he's had more games with at least six shots (seven) than games with fewer than four shots on target. The books continue to offer Kucherov’s shots on goal prop at Over 3.5, and we’re going to continue to hammer it.

He's gone Over 3.5 SOG in 13 of his last 14 games. The one exception was a three-shot, six-point contest against the Hurricanes in Carolina. Now, back at home, Kucherov should keep up his shooting attack against a Penguins team in the bottom-third of shots allowed (30.9 per game).

This is a spot where you can ladder Kucherov’s shots on goal prop as well. Over 4.5 (+136) has hit in 13 of 22 games, and Over 5.5 (+250) has hit in seven games this season.

My best bet: Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 shots on goal (-160 via DraftKings)

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Penguins vs Lightning same-game parlay

Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 shots on goal

Nikita Kucherov anytime goal

Over 6.5

We’re backing Kucherov to have a big night as the Bolts return home to Tampa Bay. He is going to be firing shots on goal all night long and it wouldn’t be surprising if the winger pots one tonight against the Pens.

Not only does he lead the league in points with 37, but his 15 goals are just two shy of Brock Boeser for the league lead. Kucherov has scored in nine of 22 games this season and doesn't tend to go too long without finding the back of the net.

After the two Kucherov props, we're adding the Over 6.5 to close out the parlay. While the Penguins and Lightning have trended toward the Under recently, things are bound to change.

Pittsburgh has the second-best xGF/60 in the league at 3.10 with Tampa Bay not too far behind at 2.73. Neither team has been exceptional defensively either, as both the Lightning and Penguins are in the bottom half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5 play.

It's also worth mentioning that all three meetings between these two teams last season went well Over 6.5, with nine, 10, and eight goals, respectively, in the three contests.

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Penguins vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Penguins opened at +115 and are still around there at most books. You can get Pittsburgh at +122 via FanDuel. On the other hand, you can get Tampa Bay at -135 at BetMGM, five cents cheaper than the -140 opening line.

I’d back the Penguins as road underdogs tonight in a battle between two inconsistent teams. This is also a tough schedule spot with Tampa Bay playing its third game in four nights.

The total for this one opened at a pick'em at 6.5. The Over 6.5 is now slightly favored at -115 with the Under 6.5 at -105.