Lions vs. 49ers Prediction, Pick & Odds: NFC Championship

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22 January 2024

Lions vs. 49ers Prediction, Pick & Odds: NFC Championship

We're two games away from the Super Bowl, and we're examining the exhilarating Sunday night matchup between Detroit and San Francisco with our Lions vs. 49ers prediction based on the best NFL odds.

The San Francisco 49ers enter the NFC Championship as the favorites by our Super Bowl odds, while the Detroit Lions own the longest odds among the four remaining teams.

That's reflected in the odds for this matchup, too, as the 49ers are as short as -310 on the moneyline at FanDuel.

Neither team had a particularly easy divisional-round game, with both winning by one possession thanks to a final-drive interception.

The Lions now hit the road for the first time this postseason after hosting the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the 49ers will stay in Santa Clara after sending their fans home happy on Saturday night.

Will the Lions capture their one opportunity in the conference championship game in more than 30 years, or will they let it slip?

As part of our look at the NFC Championship odds, here is our best Lions vs. 49ers prediction and our NFL picks for the NFC Championship Game (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lions vs. 49ers prediction

Jahmyr Gibbs Under 45.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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Only one of our five preferred projection models has provided numbers on Monday for the conference championship games, which changes this pick from a four-star bet to a three-star one. However, based on NumberFire's projections, this profiles as a strong play.

The Lions have a two-headed monster at running back with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and offseason acquisition David Montgomery. That makes their rushing attack dangerous, but it also tends to limit the output for either player.

In the NFC Divisional Round, Green Bay Packers running backs - mostly Aaron Jones - combined for 124 rushing yards against the 49ers. Nearly half of that total came on one massive run, though. NumberFire projects Gibbs and Montgomery to finish below that total, at 88.63 combined.

For his part, Gibbs is projected to finish with 41.37 rushing yards. When we run that projection against FanDuel's -114 odds on Under 45.5 rushing yards, we're getting nearly 20% positive expected value on this bet.

Comparatively, all of our other best sports betting apps have Gibbs' rushing yardage line set at 42.5. That's what Pinnacle has its line set at, too, and it features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry.

If you don't have access to FanDuel, BetRivers is offering a slightly worse line at 44.5 with the Under juiced to -117, though it's still showing better than 15% +EV.

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Lions vs. 49ers best odds

FanDuel (-114)

As is usually the case with player props, we see the value of shopping across multiple best sports betting sites. None of the other four options are particularly appealing, especially when we consider the value available at FanDuel.

Additionally, even at the lower total, two of our best NFL prop betting sites have the Under juiced more heavily than FanDuel does.

Therefore, for the best price on this prop, be sure to use our exclusive FanDuel promo code.

Lions vs. 49ers odds

This game opened with the 49ers at 7-point favorites, but only two of our best sportsbooks have that same spread on Monday afternoon. For those looking to back the underdogs and are willing to pay the extra in juice for the chance to push on a 7-point loss, you can head to Caesars or bet365 to get Lions +7 at -120.

For the best price to back the 49ers on the spread, BetMGM's -115 odds are longer than those at DraftKings and FanDuel (-118).

As for the total, it opened at 51, and only FanDuel has moved off that number. It's down to 50.5 now, with the Over juiced to -115.