NFL Championship Round Lions vs. 49ers predictions: Odds preview, props, betting tips for NFC Championship Game

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The Detroit Lions are the feel-good story of the NFL season and they’re now just one game away from booking a Super Bowl spot. Their only problem is that standing in their way are the Lombardi Trophy favorites, the San Francisco 49ers.

Here, we preview the showdown and detail some best game bets and player props for the clash.

The 49ers didn’t look the part of Super Bowl favorites in last week’s Divisional Playoff win over Green Bay as they struggled to see off the Packers. On a shaky day for Brock Purdy, they required an interception to launch Christian McCaffrey’s six-yard touchdown run with one minute left to get the job done.

But, playing in their third straight NFC Championship Game, they’re the sportsbooks’ tip to win it all for a reason. They have the most efficient passing offense in football and this is their seventh appearance in the championship game since 2011.

A big question mark over this game is whether San Fran’s star WR Deebo Samuel will be fit to play after suffering a shoulder injury early in the game against Green Bay and missing practice earlier in the week. Even if he is not ready, though, the Niners have had a week to prepare for playing without him and boast a variety of other weaponry including WR Brandon Aiyuk and the league’s leading runner in McCaffrey.

The Lions, meanwhile, are riding a wave of momentum and historic success as they prepare for their first trip to the conference championship round in more than 30 years. They’ve won five of their last six games and are one more stunning victory away from becoming NFC champions for the first time in franchise history.

Jared Goff, already impressive this season, has turned it up so far in the playoffs; he’s thrown for 564 yards, three scores, and no picks on 52-of-70 passing.

But regardless of the standout form of Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Co., it’ll be far from easy. The hosting Niners are seven-point favorites for good reason.

Kickoff is set for 5:30 p.m. CT at Levi’s Stadium live on FOX.

The biggest question of all surrounding this game isn’t Samuel’s fitness, which quarterback will have the best day, or any of the other usual fare that dominates the build-up to big games. No, it might simply be whether the 49ers are truly ready for the wave of momentum, over-achievement, and sheer force of will that is about to hit them.

Overall, the Lions have been at their most stunningly impactful when the moment has been the biggest. The Divisional Round was the best example of their progress and their effectiveness as Goff was superb, going 30-for-43 for 287 yards and 2 TDs, and both their run game and their defense not only stood up to the test of the Buccaneers but passed it with flying colors.

The 49ers are a massive upgrade in competition from the Bucs, but Dan Campbell’s team is built to withstand high-pressure occasions. If you let the trends make the decisions for you, the Niners are 3-6 against the spread in home games this season while the Lions are 7-2 ATS on the road. There’s more than enough here to think that, even if you’re not backing the Lions to pull off the upset, they’ll hang around within a touchdown’s reach.

The total’s high, but there’s no reason not to think it can tick over given that the Lions and the 49ers each rank among the league’s very best offenses both in the air and on the ground.

In the regular season, the Lions ranked second in the NFL in passing yards per game (258.9) while the 49ers were fourth (257.9), and the Niners were third in average rushing yards (140.5 per game) while Detroit was fifth (135.9 per game). Both QBs are top-five for both total passing yards and total touchdowns, McCaffrey led the league in rushing, and Amon-Ra St. Brown and Aiyuk were third and seventh in receiving yards, respectively. Need we go on?

And each team has its own defensive weakness. The Lions allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game in the regular season while the 49ers have proven somewhat loose against the run. We could see a lot of points.

San Fran’s defense is loose against running backs; the Niners gave up the fifth-most receptions (5.3 per game) and the eighth-most receiving yards (36.8 per game) to opposing RBs during the regular season and let Green Bay RB Aaron Jones have 18 rushes for 108 yards last week. In the tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions have a potentially knockout one-two punch.

Rookie runner Gibbs has 945 rushing yards this season for 63 per game, 5.2 per attempt (fifth in the NFL), and 10 rushing touchdowns and has also caught 52 passes for 316 yards from 71 targets (21.1 yards per game). And he’s only become more prominent as the season has gone on. Last week, he took over the game against the Bucs with 114 yards of total offense including a 31-yard touchdown. The Lions have weapons across the board on both sides of the field both in the air and on the ground and Gibbs is prime among them.

Given the Niners have looked pretty shaky under duress, Gibbs could have a big day. It’s also worth considering taking his longest rush at over 14.5 yards, which looks pretty much a sure thing at odds as good as -130.

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