Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction, Pick & Odds: NFC Divisional Round

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16 January 2024

Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction, Pick & Odds: NFC Divisional Round

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers upset the Philadelphia Eagles on Wild Card Weekend to set up Sunday's clash with the Detroit Lions in the NFL Divisional Round, and our Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction based on the best NFL odds expects another strong passing performance from Baker Mayfield and Co.

It felt like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were underdogs by number only against the floundering Philadelphia Eagles, as seemingly everyone picked them to score the upset win during Wild Card Weekend. This time, the early money is fading the perennial underdogs against the Detroit Lions in the first of two Sunday games to conclude the NFL Divisional Round.

Detroit took care of business in an emotionally charged victory over the Los Angeles Rams, as Jared Goff spoiled Matthew Stafford's return to Ford Field and delivered the Lions' first playoff win in three decades. Can his defense hold up on Sunday against the Buccaneers' red-hot passing attack?

Here is our best Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction

Baker Mayfield Over 241.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Let me start by saying this: I like the Bucs to cover the spread, and the mismatch between Mayfield and the Lions' passing defense is a key reason. But the early side action is on Detroit, so we can wait to grab the best number later in the week.

That isn't the case for Mayfield's passing props total, which is laughably low as of Tuesday and profiles as one of my few five-star plays of the week.

Entering the postseason, the Lions' biggest issue was their shoddy pass defense, which allowed the NFL's most air yards (2,735) and ranked in the bottom three in opponent average depth of target (9.3) and yards per completion (12.3). Sure enough, Stafford torched his former team last week en route to a season-best 367 yards with two TDs, zero picks, and a 120.9 passer rating.

I didn't see anything on Sunday that would deter me from expecting a similar showing from Mayfield, who went off for 337 yards and three scores against a comparably inept Eagles defense on Monday. That marked the fourth time in his last five games that Mayfield has thrown for 280-plus yards - the fifth came against the Carolina Panthers' third-ranked pass defense - and he's cleared this total in seven of his last 11 starts.

The biggest difference between the Lions' and Eagles' defenses is that Detroit is among the NFL's best at stopping the run and rushing the passer. Fittingly, the Bucs run it as poorly as anyone - another reason to like the Over on this volume-based passing prop - and Mayfield has produced some of his best performances of late even as his protection has wavered.

As mentioned before, all of those reasons have me eyeing the Bucs against the spread, even as the market moves against them. I don't mind waiting until later in the week to see if we can grab +7, but I wouldn't wait to pounce on this paltry line in a plus-matchup for Mayfield.

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Buccaneers vs. Lions best odds

There's plenty of variance in the early market for Mayfield's passing yards prop. Three of our five best sports betting sites list this total at 243.5, with two juiced to the Over, while FanDuel offers a market-low 241.5 with tolerable -114 odds.

That's where we recommend making this bet, and we wouldn't recommend waiting, given that the rest of the market seems to be coalescing around a higher number. That said, I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to get the most out of your wager at FanDuel or otherwise ahead of the NFL Divisional Round.

Buccaneers vs. Lions odds

After scoring a blowout win as 3-point home underdogs on Monday, the Buccaneers opened as even bigger underdogs against the Lions, with all five of our best sports betting apps hanging Tampa Bay +6 on Monday night.

The market quickly moved in favor of the Lions, who are trading at -6.5 at four of our five best sportsbooks. If you like Detroit, you might want to rush to the window to bet -6 (-112) at DraftKings. And if you like the Bucs (as I do), I'd recommend waiting until later in the week in the event the early action pushes this line to the key number of 7.

The total hasn't budged since opening at 48.5, with only FanDuel offering anything other than -110 odds both ways (their Over is juiced to -115). To that point, I'd suspect the Over to be the public-friendly side in this matchup, but you should be able to wait until later in the week to grab a market outlier in either direction.