Predictions, Picks & Odds for Black Friday

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23 November 2023

Predictions, Picks & Odds for Black Friday

The NFL plays on Black Friday for the first time, and our NFL player props for Week 12 are the perfect complement to the holiday action. We also search for the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites when making NFL picks.

The Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, and San Francisco 49ers all picked up big victories during the NFL's Thanksgiving Day tripleheader, and our NFL player props went 1-1 with a -106 hit on the receiving yards line for Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon.

We'll look to add to the win column when the Miami Dolphins play the New York Jets in the first-ever Black Friday game ahead of the Sunday slate.

To accompany our NFL Week 12 predictions and NFL best bets, here are our best NFL player props for Week 11 (odds via ourbest NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 12

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NFL player props for Week 12: Friday

Allen Lazard Over 15.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Miami Dolphins are a huge favorite, and I’m anticipating them taking care of business and pulling away from the New York Jets on Friday. As a result, we’re lining up for the perfect garbage-time scenario, and taking Lazard to haul in a pass or two while clearing this pedestrian total.

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It might only take one catch to top the number. I also value that this is the lowest Lazard’s receiving-yards total has been all season, and he closed at 25.5 the past two weeks.

I'm projecting Lazard for 29.4 receiving yards, so I’d price this Over at -159 for a positive expected value of 17% compared to the -110 bet365 odds.

Finally, are we sure the New York offense is actually going to be worse with third-string quarterback Tim Boyle starting?

NFL player props for Week 12: Sunday

Javonte Williams Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

While the Cleveland Browns check out as a daunting matchup at first glance, I still expect Williams to enjoy success on the ground Sunday. Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren broke off for a 74-yard rushing touchdown to account for a chunk of the 172 yards the Brownies allowed in Week 11. Denver's offense has also been far more dynamic during its five-game winning streak.

Additionally, I expect Browns quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson to struggle to extend drives, which will in turn wear down the Cleveland defense.

I'm projecting Williams for 66.9 rushing yards and would price this Over at -149 for a positive expected value of 14% compared to the -110 bet365 odds.

NFL player props for Week 12: Thursday

AJ Dillon Over 12.5 receiving yards (-106 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅

With Packers running back Aaron Jones (knee) sidelined, Dillon is in line to receive a notable workload, and Green Bay is also a sizable road underdog. As a result, I’m anticipating Dillon to get a few looks in the passing game Thursday.

Of course, Dillon is also nursing a groin injury, but this 12.5 total is by no means astronomical. He caught all four of his targets in Week 11 for 32 yards and maintains proven pass-catching chops.

I also value the reduced vig in the -106 BetRivers price. Based on my projection of 16.8 receiving yards for Dillon, I’d price this Over at -138 for a positive expected value of 13% on the BetRivers odds.

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David Montgomery Over 5.5 receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐ ❌

There’s all kinds of buzz surrounding Lions rookie rusher Jahmyr Gibbs, but let's not look past Montgomery and this short receiving yards total. It's especially worth a look because Montgomery’s total in this market has closed at 10.5 in the past two weeks.

Additionally, while not a go-to weapon in Detroit's passing attack, Montgomery has cleared this 5.5 number in five of his seven games with eight receptions for 88 yards on 12 targets.

I'm projecting Montgomery for 10.9 receiving yards and would price the Over at -156, leading to a positive expected value of 16% compared to the -110 FanDuel odds.

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