Long Distance Cup: runner-by-runner guide and tip
Racing TV's Harry Allwood provides his verdict on the ten contenders that remain in the QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup, the opening race on QIPCO British Champions Day this Saturday, live on Racing TV and Racing TV Extra.
What will be the ground be like at Ascot on Saturday? With an abundance of rain forecast, and the potential for the races to be run on the inner track, which is currently good, good to firm in places, it is hard to predict.
I tipped Trawlerman ante-post at 25-1 a couple of weeks ago when there was a dry forecast plus the likelihood of 'good' being in the going description! The five-year-old is now a general 16-1 chance, although he wouldn't want the ground to be too testing.
Kyprios and Trueshan are both on course to clash, and they dominate the market, with the latter a best-priced 5-4, and Alan King's stable star a general 2-1.
The rest of the contenders are available at 8-1 or bigger, and below is a guide to the ten that remain in contention for the two-mile contest due off at 1.15pm.
Don't forget, you can watch all the action on QIPCO British Champions Day live on Racing TV and Racing TV Extra.
���� 1. BROOME
Official rating: 116. Timeform rating:Best odds: 40-1.
Smart middle-distance globetrotter who relished the step back up to two miles (on fast ground) when landing the Dubai Gold Cup in March. Although he's won multiple times on soft, it's unlikely two miles on easy ground will see him to best effect as he only just about stays this trip, and would not want this to become a real test of stamina. Based upon his past two outings, he has a bit to find with some of the leading protagonists here, and the Ballydoyle team hold stronger claims with Kyprios.
���� 2. COLTRANE
Official rating: 117. Timeform rating:Best odds: 8-1.
Consistent performer who was narrowly denied by Trueshan in this race last year, and arguably produced a career-best effort when defeating Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami in the Lonsdale Cup two starts ago. His form figures at this track read 1212 and while he stays further than two miles, he appears best suited by a sounder surface, so it will be a concern if the ground is soft or worse. He also needs to bounce back from a rare below-par run when last seen (where soft ground was the likely reason for his form shown).
���� 3. GIAVELLOTTO
Official rating: 114. Timeform rating:Best odds: 16-1.
Last year's St Leger third has improved again this season and caused an upset when defeating Eldar Eldarov in the Yorkshire Cup in May. Shaped better than the result suggests in a messy renewal of the Goodwood Cup next time out and was not beaten far by Coltrane and Courage Mon Ami in the Lonsdale Cup when last seen. It's likely this four-year-old has more to offer as a stayer and he wouldn't need to improve much more to sneak a place, although Marco Botti says his charge will only run if the ground is not too soft.
���� 4. KYPRIOS
Official rating: 121. Timeform rating:Best odds: 5-4.
High-class stayer who won all six starts last year, which included four victories at Group One level, before a joint infection (which he picked up in the Spring) caused him to be absent for almost a year. It was in doubt that he would ever race again, but he returned with a satisfactory effort to finish second in the Irish St. Leger, and will certainly strip fitter for that outing. I have no doubt he's the best horse in this race (the official ratings also tell us that), but will Aidan O'Brien's star stayer be able to produce his brilliant best? The bounce factor is also a concern, and it will be some training performance from the Ballydoyle maestro if Kyprios is able to score here following a turbulent few months.
���� 5. STRATUM
Official rating: 99. Timeform rating:Best odds: 100-1.
Has provided his connections with some memorable victories, most notably when winning the Queen Alexandra Stakes in 2021 and 2022, and the 2019 Cesarewitch. Was far from disgraced when fourth in this race last year, although on that evidence, he will need a few to underperform to go close if he does repeat that effort. Hasn't been in the same form this year, though, and his rating has now declined to 99, so it's probably wise to look elsewhere.
���� 6. SWEET WILLIAM
Official rating: 108. Timeform rating:Best odds: 10-1.
A rapid improver this season having recorded back-to-back victories in valuable handicaps (including one on heavy ground) before finishing an agonising second in the Ebor. Took the step up to Grade Two company in his stride when second in the Doncaster Cup last time out where he gave Trueshan a big fright, but that rival didn't appear at his brilliant best that day, and Coltrane also proved a disappointment. Remains with a few pounds to find on ratings with the main players here, and while it isn't hard to envisage him running well given he should have more to offer, he's probably vulnerable for win purposes.
���� 7. TRAWLERMAN
Official rating: 113. Timeform rating:Best odds: 16-1.
Showed a brilliant attitude to win the Sky Bet Ebor last year before finishing third in this race, an effort that showed he is capable of competing at this level. Failed to sparkle on two starts abroad at the beginning of this year, but returned with an easy victory at Salisbury in September where he clocked a decent time, despite being eased in the closing stages, and again impressed when making the most of a good opportunity at Newmarket when last seen. Those victories suggest he has improved again this season, and he's no forlorn hope at chunky odds, especially as he arrives here a relatively fresh horse. Soft ground would be the main concern, though.
���� 8. TRUESHAN
Official rating: 117. Timeform rating:Best odds: 2-1.
Recorded a couple of below-par efforts at the start of this season, but bounced back following a break (and a wind op) to win the Doncaster Cup in workmanlike fashion, and produced a dominant display when winning the Prix du Cadran for the second time in September. His main market rival disappointed at ParisLongchamp, so he was left with inferior rivals to beat, but it proved he was back to somewhere near his best. Has won the past three renewals of the Long Distance Cup, and relishes cut in the ground, so another big run can be expected.
���� 9. MAXIDENT
Official rating: 79. Timeform rating:Best odds: 125-1.
Incredibly won a novice stakes by 50 lengths on debut where he appeared to relish heavy ground. Didn't quite live up to expectations on his next two starts and only beat one rival home on handicap debut off a rating of 83 when last seen. Has an awful lot to find and this is a big ask for a three-year-old with just four starts under his belt.
���� 10. TOWER OF LONDON
Official rating: 112. Timeform rating:Best odds: 33-1.
Has steadily improved this season and shaped with plenty of credit to finish fourth in the St Leger two starts ago, his first attempt at Group One level. It is probably best to forgive his latest effort when ninth in the Irish Cesarewitch when last seen as the ground conditions were atrocious, athough he may face a similar scenario on Saturday! Remains with the potential to develop into a leading stayer, but this may just be a step too far at this stage of his career.
Harry's big-race verdict:
To follow after declarations on Thursday.
