Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf: runner-by-runner guide and an 8-1 tip

European raiders have dominated the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf this century and several of their A-Listers head the betting for Saturday’s $4 million showpiece at Santa Anita.

The Derby one-two Auguste Rodin and King of Steel will meet for a third time in a third different country in the space of five months, which must constitute some kind of record, while Mostahdaf lines up after his late defection on Champions Day at Ascot.

All 12 runners have won at the highest level, accumulating about £22 million in prize money, with an international renewal also featuring challengers from France and Japan, suggesting the home team are going to struggle to add to the five outright winners they’ve achieved since 1999. However, they have won three of the past five editions of the race when it has been staged at this venue and their contingent this time includes the exciting Up To The Mark.

A low draw is often perceived as an advantage in all races at Santa Anita but a wide berth has proved no barrier to success in recent renewals at the track. The past five Turf winners have broken from gates 7, 11, 12 (twice) and 9. And three of the place horses have been in 10, 9 and 7 (twice).

Here’s a guide to all the runners, whose number on the race card also reflects where they are drawn.

���� 1 SHAHRYAR

Prize-money won: £6,626,362. Best odds: 16/1.

The 2021 Japan Derby winner took his form to another level when landing the Sheema Classic on Dubai World Cup night early last year, when he had such as Pyledriver and Hukum behind. He also lost little in defeat when runner-up in the Japan Cup at the end of his campaign but the five-year-old has been subdued in his two races this term, albeit he was up against Equinox when defending his Sheema Classic crown on the first occasion. I’d expect Cristian Demuro to ride Shahryar forwards from his low draw but he’s going to need more than just a revival to give Japan a first victory in this.

���� 2 ONESTO

Prize-money won: £1,102,163. Odds: 15/2.

Belied odds of 55/1 when a fine third to Ace Impact in the Prix de l’Ac de Triomphe last month. He flew home at Longchamp and would have nabbed second off Westover in another stride. The Frankel colt must enter calculations after that effort, not least because he’s had a light campaign, although it was something of a standout effort and there’s just a suspicion he was flattered, with Maxime Guyon pouncing from the back of the pack out wide. Similar hold-up tactics here will be difficult to execute, especially with the short home stretch at Santa Anita usually taking less than 20 seconds to negotiate. Onesto had 30 seconds to hit top gear in Paris.

���� 3 GOLD PHOENIX

Prize-money won: £754,859. Odds: 50/1.

Give yourself a pat on the back if you can recall that this this American-bred gelding began his career with a debut win at Dundalk early in 2021 when trained by Kieran Cotter. He was on the plane to the USA soon after and, unlike most of these, boasts a Grade One success at Santa Anita. However, that was gained in an all-American affair and don’t be fooled into thinking he’s a course specialist as his overall record at the track is two wins from ten starts. He trailed home tenth in last year’s Turf and few will give him a second glance after he fluffed his lines in a Grade Two event here last time.

���� 4 BOLSHOI BALLET

Prize-money won: £1,021,437. Odds: 20/1.

It’s easy to forget that he went off a well-backed 11/8 favourite for the Derby in 2021. Excuses were quickly forthcoming after he trailed home seventh at Epsom, but the simple truth is that the son of Galileo was never as good as many imagined him to be. He’s been unable to subsequently win a race in England or Ireland – despite running in Listed company on three occasions – and suffered the indignity of being deployed as a pacemaker, in the King George, when last on our shores. He has won a couple of times at the highest level in America two years apart, including on his latest start under John Valazquez in the Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga, but that’s more a reflection of the lack in strength in depth among USA’s middle-distance turf horses. His dwindling Fan Club will pin their hopes on Valazquez, seeking a third success in this race, unlocking something that his previous six jockeys have been unable to achieve.

���� 5 AUGUSTE RODIN

Prize-money won: £2,350,181. Odds: 11/4 fav.

He’s been a puzzle, hasn’t he? The ultimate all or nothing horse? The human version, a French sculptor, was famed for works that included The Gates Of Hell and The Thinker. I fancy he’s a bit of the latter and can relate to the former via getting him all wrong for punting purposes. Victories in the Derby, Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes have been mixed among deplorable runs in the 2000 Guineas and King George. His Irish Derby win was underwhelming, and I felt the cards fell his way in the Irish Champion when a length separated the first four home. Throw in those stinkers away from home, plus his busy year, and it’s easy enough to reject the favourite. Well, easy enough if you are happy to overlook that Aidan O’Brien has already this prize a record six times, and that Ryan Moore has landed three editions of the Turf here at Santa Anita. O’Brien hasn’t had things all his own way with his recent vanquished runners including Highland Reel (11/10) Magical (15/8), St Nicholas Abbey (5/2) and another Derby winner in Anthony Van Dyck (3/1).

���� 6 GET SMOKIN

Is now a non-runner.

���� 7 BROOME

Prize-money won: £2,184,331. Odds: 50/1.

Aidan O’Brien cannot have had too many horses who have run 38 times, if any? Istabraq had 29 for him, Yeats 26, St Nicholas Abbey 21. I digress. The busy Broome is clearly part of the furniture at Ballydoyle but, at 7, it’s difficult to envisage him making it third time lucky in this. He had this prize snatched from his grasp late on by Yibir in 2021 but could never get involved 12 months ago after a sluggish start. This season he has been reinvented as a stayer, landing the Dubai Gold Cup in March, but he’s been swept away in the second half of the campaign, being thumped on Champions Day last time. He will wear first-time blinkers.

���� 8 UP TO THE MARK

Prize-money won: £1,466,597. Odds: 8/1.

.@nickluck caught @PletcherRacing in the auditorium after the @BreedersCup draw and asked about his entries - Dreamlike, Bright Future, and Up To The Mark. pic.twitter.com/PeDnUZFXM2

— TVG (@TVG) October 31, 2023

He’s the No 1 hope of the home team and must be taken seriously as he’s thrived since being switched to the turf in January. His only defeat in six starts on the surface came when given too much to do in the Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland in April. He followed that with successive wins in the Classic Stakes (Keeneland) and ten-furlong Manhattan Stakes (Belmont). He was commanding in the latter, putting two Charlie Appleby contenders firmly in their place. Given a four-month break, he picked up from where he left off by taking the Coolmore Turf Mile back at Keeneland last time, doing exceptionally to claw back Appleby’s Master Of The Seas after that rival had got first run. The runner-up had previously been a runaway winner of the Summer Mile (Ascot) and Woodbine Mile. The obvious potential stumbling block for Up To The Mark is the trip, which he’s never previously tackled. However, his career-best was in the longest race he has run in, the Manhattan, a race Bricks And Mortar won before landing this here in 2019 (when also having his first run over the trip). Up To The Mark has got a potent turn of foot, has no issue with firm ground plus had the pause that refreshes in mid-season. He’s got a bit to find, in terms of form, but there’s not a gaping chasm, and he gives every indication the trip could be within his range. For what it’s worth, his sire No This Time, stayed on well when runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over an extended mile in 2016, while his grandsire, Ghostzapper, kept on stoutly when landing the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2004.

���� 9 MOSTAHDAF

Prize-money won: £2,409,537. Odds: 3/1.

He’s come of age this term, waltzing four lengths clear after being held up in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot before making all in the Juddmonte International at York, fending off Nashwa and Paddington in the closing stages. Interestingly, connections were keen on keeping him over ten furlongs in the Champion Stakes – presumably taking this race off the table – but had a late rethink when the ground at Ascot was deemed unsuitable. You can understand the thinking of connections because his best efforts have been over that trip. He didn’t get home in the Sheema Classic over 12 furlongs at Meydan in March, albeit he ran well and was up against a monster in Equinox that day. His only win in five starts over the trip came when landing a slowly-run Group Three race at Kempton. Jim Crowley will probably look to replicate the kind of hold-up tactics he employed at Ascot, to preserve his stamina, but that will bring its own complications.

���� 10 ADHAMO

Prize-money won: £700,411. Odds: 66/1.

He proved difficult to place – and quite expensive to follow - in France in the summer of 2021, and it has been a similar story since his switch to the yard of Chad Brown. Adhamo did manage a top-level win in the United Nation Stakes at Monmouth last year, but he’s been unable to add to that success. The fact we’ve only seen him twice this season suggests he’s had issues and he was a distant third to Nations Pride in the Canadian International Stakes on his latest start.

���� 11 KING OF STEEL

Prize-money won: £1,396,812. Odds: 6/1.

The most likeable grey pulled out all the stops to win the Champion Stakes under an inspired Frankie Dettori, although it wasn’t a vintage edition, with none of those lining up boasting an official rating higher than 121. Moreover, he had to dig deep to prevail that day and there must be a chance this will come too quick. Also, he’s had some tough races this term and it might easily be one too many. Even if he’s at his best, he’s probably going to need to raise his game a notch higher to avenge earlier defeats inflicted on him by Auguste Rodin in both the Derby and Irish Champion Stakes. Then, there’s the firm ground and tight track – neither surely ideal for such an imposing horse. Dettori is seeking a sixth win in race but none of his previous victories have been at Santa Anita.

���� 12 BALLADEER

Prize-money won: £198,957. Odds: 50/1.

Unraced until the start of 2023, the four-year-old has done his best to make up for lost time, albeit his first four races (all at this venue) ended in defeat. He’s improved with racing, especially since being re-equipped with blinkers in recent starts and upped in distance. His narrow success in a Grade Two race over ten furlongs here at the start of last month was a personal best, but they finished in a heap and it’s still a long way off what will be required here. He made all on that occasion, so expect Victor Espinoza to have his foot on the accelerator early on.

���� 13 WAR LIKE GODDESS

Prize-money won: £1,819,116. Odds: 14/1.

The six-year-old mare has a good wins-to-runs ratio (nine from 15) and looked right back to her best after a couple of dull efforts when winning a second successive renewal of the Grade One Joe Hirsch Turf Classic on easy ground at Aqueduct last month, for all that a couple of habitual losers chased her home, and the odds-on favourite, Rebel’s Romance, clearly had an off-day. War Like Goddess followed up her Aqueduct win last year by finishing a staying-on third in the Turf at Keeneland, having filled the same position in the Filly & Mare Turf 12 months earlier, when not seen to best advantage. This will be her first outing at Santa Anita and, at 6, you would have though her window had passed. However, she does tick several boxes and Junior Alvarado, who gave her a lovely patient ride last time, again seems likely to try and play her late. Her record in races over 11 or 12 furlongs is an impressive 11111311213121. Two of the past three renewals of the Turf at Santa Anita have been drawn in 12, where she will jump from after the defection of Get Smokin. The faster they go, the better her chance will be.

VERDICT

The Europeans hold a typically strong hand but Auguste Rodin’s two runs away from Ireland this year have been lamentable and, even if at his best after a long year, the favourite’s form doesn’t give him much wriggle room. King Of Steel has a third crack at beating him, but a tough race at Ascot (when he probably didn’t have to improve to win) might easily have left a mark. Mostahdaf’s optimum trip is ten furlongs and Onesto’s overall form hints his fine run in the Arc, when nobody gave him a mention beforehand, perhaps shouldn’t be taken at face value. War Like Goddess made the frame in this last year and should give it another good go but the one who makes most appeal is UP TO THE MARK, who has been hard to fault over shorter distances. The trip is an unknown but he seemed to relish ten furlongs earlier in the year and he’s completely unexposed over middle distances. American runners are usually vulnerable in the Turf but it's surely no coincidence that they’ve had six winners (one a dead-heart) in the ten renewals of the race at Santa Anita.

1 UP TO THE MARK. 2 MOSTAHDAF. 3 WAR LIKE GODDESS.