Breeders' Cup tips: Key talking points and horses to follow in Santa Anita
Auguste the great, or a final bump in the Rodin?
Auguste Rodin was hard to watch in the 2000 Guineas and some of us genuinely felt we’d probably not see him on a racecourse again after the King George, so the intuitive feeling – the percentage call as a punter – is that for all his brilliance, it must be worth trying to take him on once more in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Aidan O’Brien and 'The Lads' seem to have a very different take; one of absolute faith. And whether he ends up being the hero or the villain of the piece out in California, there’s no question the dual Derby and Irish Champion Stakes hero is the European flag-bearer bound for Santa Anita this year.
The blowouts throughout this remarkable three-year-old campaign remain largely unaccountable, certainly on paper anyway.
Soft ground almost makes sense and yet he won twice in testing conditions as a two-year-old, including once in Group 1 company at Doncaster, and you can’t really buy into the alleged issue with air travel as he wouldn’t be running in a four-million-dollar horse race out here if connections genuinely felt that theory had legs (or wings?).
Either way, a good break since Leopardstown and optimum conditions on the west coast of America look to leave this mercurial son of Deep Impact with one final, no-excuses chance to prove the persistent doubters wrong and cement his legacy before heading off to stud.
Assuming your glass is at least a drop more than half full, this one could be a joy to watch.
Putting up Most resistance
With all due respect to King Of Steel, who is sent into battle again just a fortnight after his Champions Day success, and the likes of Luxembourg and Nashwa, who are both solid yardsticks in their own right, has Auguste Rodin ever beaten a genuine top-notch ace?
I reckon that would be hard to argue given the one time he bumped into Timeform’s top two European older horses (Westover and Hukum), he appeared to recoil in horror. And now he’s lining up against Mostahdaf, the third highest-rated older horse in Europe.
After winning in Saudi Arabia in February, he finished among a bunch of global stars when fourth to Equinox in the Sheema Classic a month later and has delivered on that promise with impressive G1 wins at Royal Ascot and York.
Taken out on the morning of the Champion Stakes on account of the soft ground, his presence – along with Arc third Onesto and the big home hope Up To The Mark – adds significant lustre to the BC Turf and it’s not hard to imagine the fast mile and a half around Santa Anita playing to Mostahdaf’s strengths.
It’s been a long year for the horse in one sense, but he’s only raced four times and clearly goes best when fresh. Jim Crowley is back, with Dettori sticking to King Of Steel, and in contrast to his main market rival, the complete no-show looks a longshot.
Small but select Godolphin squad
No Turf runner for Charlie Appleby, winner of the race for the past two years (Yibir and Rebel’s Romance), but it’s worth reiterating his overall record of nine winners from just 18 Breeders’ Cup starters.
He'd been hinting for a while that this year’s team would be nothing like those of recent years and so it has proved, Appleby entering just Master Of The Seas in the Mile, With The Moonlight in the Filly & Mare Turf and Legend Of Time in the Juvenile Turf.
It looks a bit of a fact-finding mission for twice-raced Sea The Stars colt Legend Of Time, and Wish The Moonlight has a job on her hands trying to reverse recent Woodbine form with the ex-Richard Fahey-trained Fev Rover, let alone beating Warm Heart and Inspiral.
Master Of The Seas was only narrowly denied in his prep run at Keeneland and looks the most likely to bolster Appleby’s brilliant BC strike-rate, but is he even the best Mile hope running in the royal blue of Godolphin?
He’s got to concede 6lb to Saeed bin Suroor’s Classic-winning filly Mawj, who is fit and firing after returning with another G1 win under Oisin Murphy at Keeneland earlier in the month. They are currently about the same price (4/1) towards the top of an open-looking betting market and, provided she’s not posted way out wide, Mawj going to post as clear favourite doesn’t look out the question.
The other major Saturday race from a European perspective is the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, the one and only prize to come back over the Atlantic when Santa Anita last staged the meeting in 2019.
Iridessa took top spot for Joseph O’Brien and Wayne Lordan that year and the eye is immediately drawn to the same trainer’s Lumiere Rock, who has improved for a drop back to 10 furlongs and the addition of cheekpieces in recent months. Winner of the Group 2 Blanford Stakes and third in the Prix de l’Opera, her form credentials are solid if unspectacular.
Lumiere Rock was comfortably held when runner-up to Warm Heart in the Ribblesdale and, despite a disappointing effort in the Irish Oaks, the latter has been really impressive in the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille on her last two starts.
I was surprised to see she wasn’t at least given the option of the Turf too, but O’Brien (senior) must be confident a drop back in trip won’t hurt her and Ryan Moore will presumably look to dictate the pace if at all possible.
It’s not quite Enable versus Magical in the 2018 Turf, but hot on Moore’s heels will be Frankie Dettori aboard Inspiral and there should be no concerns over her going up in trip to tackle 10 furlongs for the first time around here.
It could well be the making of her, typically on what could be her swansong, and barring a shock defeat at 1/7 in last year’s Falmouth, Inspiral is unbeaten on ground officially described as good to firm. 'European banker' is a dangerous billing, but Inspiral looks as close as it gets this time.
Where are the Value Bets?
We should be used to Aidan O’Brien springing the odd Breeders’ Cup surprise by now – I’m thinking Order Of Australia and Victoria Road – and if there is any value to be found among the travelling part this year it could be worth delving a little deeper in the Ballydoyle team.
Live In The Dream is one of the stories of the season in Britain and made an encouraging appearance at Keeneland in his preparation for the Turf Sprint but he’s going to have plenty of company on the sharp end, not least from Wes Ward’s Twilight Gleaming, and it could help set things up for AESOP’S FABLES.
He was dead last in the Nunthorpe but has looked a long-term project for a while now and finally started to simmer when a running-on third behind Highfield Princess in the first-time blinkers last time out in the Abbaye.
He’s seemingly got one or two ideas of his own, but winging around this tight turn almost on the one breath could really light his fire, and he’s going to be an each-way price in his bid to come fast and late to nail the blazers.
The O’Brien dark horse to keep in mind on Friday is JOHANNES BRAHMS, one of four initially entered for the yard in the Juvenile Turf. He’s not won since his Naas debut back in May but belied his pedigree with a cracking run in second behind Big Evs in the Windsor Castle and has gained some much-needed experience with a couple more creditable runs in defeat in the Gimcrack and a big-field sales race at Doncaster when last seen.
He could really flourish if given the opportunity to tackle a mile for the first time on the likely quick surface here, although he was also nominated for the Juvenile (dirt) so is one to monitor for the time being.
Breeders’ Cup 2023 race times and schedule
Friday, November 3
- 9pm: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
- 9:40pm: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
- 10:20pm: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
- 11pm: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
- 11:40pm: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Saturday, November 4
- 6:30pm: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
- 7:10pm: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
- 7:50pm: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
- 8:30pm: Breeders’ Cup Mile
- 9:10pm: Breeders’ Cup Distaff
- 9:50pm: Breeders’ Cup Turf
- 10:40pm: Breeders’ Cup Classic
- 11:25pm: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
- 12am: Breeders’ Cup Sprint
British and Irish Breeders’ Cup winners in last five years
2022 (Keeneland): Meditate, Mischief Magic, Victoria Road, Tuesday, Modern Games, Rebel’s Romance
2021 (Del Mar): Modern Games, Space Blues, Yibir
2020 (Keeneland): Glass Slippers, Audarya, Order Of Australia, Tarnawa
2019 (Santa Anita): Iridessa
2018 (Churchill Downs): Line Of Duty, Expert Eye, Enable
First published at 1600 BST on 28/10/23
Football and other sports tips
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org
