LSU at Mississippi State odds, prediction and best picks

The LSU Tigers open up Southeastern Conference play in Week 3 against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Davis Wade Stadium in Mississippi will play host to the latest edition of the "Cowbells vs. Cajuns" rivalry. The Bulldogs will look to pick up only their third win at home against the Tigers since 1999.

It's an early start in Starkville game is set to kick off at 11 a.m. CT. ESPN will have the national broadcast with Joe Tessitore and Jesse Palmer on the call. 

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is putting heavy juice on the visitors with the over/under set at 53.5 total points.

Let's take a closer look at the odds, highlight some picks and a make prediction for this Week 3 SEC West showdown:

LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Time/TV: 11 a.m. (ESPN)

Spread: LSU -9.5

Over/Under: 53.5

Moneyline: LSU -385, Mississippi State +300

TOP PICK

LSU -9.5 at Mississippi State (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

The public is down on LSU after its humiliating Week 1 showing against Florida State. However, sharps love the Tigers in this spot, so the spread has hovered around double digits all week.

LSU is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against the Bulldogs. The Tigers have won outright in Starkville 10 out of the 11 times they have visited Davis Wade Stadium since the turn of the century. Further, they're averaging a winning margin of 23 points in those victories.

Brian Kelly's offense is humming after scoring a touchdown on every possession except for their last in a 72-10 win over Grambling State. Meanwhile, Mississippi State looks like one of the worst teams in the Power Five after needing overtime to take down Arizona last week.

We'll side with the sharps in this one and take LSU to win by two or more scores.

Prediction: LSU 38 (-9.5), Mississippi State 23

OTHER PICKS

OVER 54 total points (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

As good as Mike Denbrock's offense has been to start the year, Matt House's defense has been worrisome. Florida State obviously torched LSU for 45 points and Grambling State had its way with the Tigers early on.

Even though Mississippi State looks shaky, its offense has scored 79 total points in two games. Senior quarterback Will Rogers has seen LSU many times during his career with the Bulldogs and he's surely licking his lips at the uncertainty in the Tigers' secondary.

Both teams tend to hit the over more often than not with LSU doing so in eight of its last 13 outright and Mississippi State doing so in six of its last eight at home. Those who wake up "early" will be rewarded with plenty of offense.

Jayden Daniels OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-119 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Jayden Daniels is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. The Bulldogs know this all too well after LSU's No. 5 threw for 210 yards and rushed for another 93 on them last season. Mississippi State struggled to contain Arizona's dual-threat quarterback, Jayden de Laura, last week as he posted 44 yards on just eight carries.

The LSU star has run the ball 10+ times against every Power Five opponent he's faced in the regular season since he's been in Baton Rouge, which tells us he'll get a lot of volume today too. Daniels has only failed to reach 55 yards rushing three times in such instances, so this seems to be as safe of a bet as any.

Jo'Quavious Marks OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-145 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Teams have chosen to punish LSU's inexperienced secondary, and it's worked well thus far. The Tigers haven't figured it out quite yet, so they're lucky to be playing a team that looks to be committed to running the ball a ton under new head coach Zach Arnett.

Jo'Quavious Marks is averaging 21.5 carries and 125 yards per game, good for a whopping 5.8 yards per carry through two games. While things are mostly doom and gloom around the Mississippi State football program as it looks to rebuild, the senior is a beacon of hope. Marks may not be a total game-changer against what looks to be a Top 10 LSU team, but he will almost certainly get his against a shaky Tigers rush defense if he gets 20+ touches.