Liberty vs Mystics Predictions, Picks, and Odds

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20 May 2023

Liberty vs Mystics Predictions, Picks, and Odds

The Liberty were the story of the offseason, but against a well-gelled unit like the Mystics, it may be rough sailing at first while their stars feel each other out. See how our WNBA picks are fading the hype in the opener.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The WNBA wastes no time this season, putting an underrated yet dramatic matchup on opening night with the New York Liberty heading to face the Washington Mystics. The entire offseason seemed to be spent hyping the Liberty, yet it opened as just a short favorite against the Mystics. Why? Three words for you: Elena Delle Donne.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Liberty vs the Mystics on May 19, with tip set for 7:00 ET.

Liberty vs Mystics best odds

Liberty vs Mystics picks and predictions

The hype for the Liberty is deserved, but it also may be a bit too aggressive. At least, to start the season. Superteams take time to gel. We see it time after time in the NBA, and the biggest fundamental so often forgotten in WNBA odds handicapping is, this is still basketball. Women’s basketball follows the same tenets as men’s basketball. If it took the Brooklyn Nets years to find any rhythm with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden, why would it not take some time for Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones to sync? Never mind how the Nets ended. The point is, there was a build-up to any short-lived success.

That build-up will come at the Liberty’s expense tonight.

The Mystics enjoy continuity. Last year’s leading scorer (Elena Delle Donne at 17.2 points per game), rebounder (Shakira Austin with 6.4) and playmaker (Natasha Cloud’s league-leading 7.0 assists per game) all return. Six of their Top-7 players, based on minutes per game, are back in Washington. This roster has hardly fluctuated, just like its coaching staff remains constant, Eric Thibault beginning his second season in charge after taking over for his father, Mike.

There is value to all this consistency early in the season, particularly in the WNBA with abridged preseason camps and only two preseason games per team.

Power rankings understandably inflate the Liberty’s value. Many books offer a futures prop of Liberty + Aces vs. the field to win the title. FanDuel prices the field at +400. Combining those superstars should lead to a force once the season gets rolling.

But tonight, the team that finished tied for No. 4 in the league last year holds value. The Mystics closed last season on an 8-3 stretch. They went 7-3 against the spread as an underdog and 6-4 straight-up in those moments. For that matter, Washington went 3-0 straight-up as a short underdog of 3.5 points or fewer last season.

That team is this team. Same stars, same leaders, same coach. Why bet against it?

My best bet: Mystics moneyline (+135 at DraftKings)

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Liberty vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis

This line moved across an obvious key number when spreads finally opened on Thursday. (We already have 18 weeks of NFL lines and a hundred or so college football spreads, but we needed to wait until Thursday night for season-opening WNBA numbers? Do better, bookmakers.) The Liberty opened as 2.5-point favorites at most books before rising to -3.5 by the end of the night, a number still widely available Friday morning though with juice at some books.

There’s that hype again.

The public wants to get behind New York. Superteams draw casual eyeballs. They are, genuinely, good for the sport. But expecting a finished product in Game 1 is preparing to be disappointed.

The same goes for the totals. This opened at 162.5 and there should be clear value in the Under. Preseason totals repeatedly fell Under their numbers, a result of rosters in flux.

This was arguably the most chaotic offseason in WNBA history, another good sign for the league, and that created a pile of rosters still getting to know each other. That disrupts offenses more than defenses, and that leads to Unders. That tonight’s total has not yet moved off 162.5 does not change that expectation.