Man Utd vs Tottenham predictions & Premier League tips

Man Utd vs Tottenham betting tips:

This week’s Super Sunday match (4.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event) takes us to Old Trafford for a clash between two teams who are having very curious seasons.

Manchester United seem to be embroiled in their usual cycle which has occurred repeatedly since Sir Alex Ferguson retired. They appoint a new manager who starts their first season well, only to see a drop off in year two or three, and they may find themselves 10th in the table by the time this match gets underway.

Tottenham have been performing to a higher standard than many expected ahead of the campaign. Yet despite being top of the league at the start of November and being the final side in the division to taste defeat in 2023/24, Spurs have since won just four of the last 10 and now sit fifth.

The best football betting sites make the Red Devils favourites to win but where does the value lie?

Tough to separate unreliable duo

The expected goal data for this season suggests the visitors should have the shortest price in the match odds market on UK betting sites but their results make it hard to back them to win. 

Tottenham have played four away games against the current top 11 this season and have only collected two points for their trouble. With Son Heung-min away on international duty, Spurs also lack a reliable goal scorer – Dejan Kulusevski is their only available player with more than one league goal on the road this season, and he only has three. 

Spurs have also won just three of their 27 away matches against the rest of the ‘big six’ since the summer of 2018. Two of those victories were at United – including a 6-1 mauling in 2020 – but their record in games of this stature is undoubtedly questionable, making them tough trust when assessing the Premier League odds for this game.

However, they did draw at both Arsenal and Manchester City earlier this season and a stalemate on Sunday afternoon looks a distinct possibility.

When these sides met in north London earlier this season, Tottenham ran out 2-0 winners. United dominated the first half, though, and missed three Opta-defined big chances. They added another after half time and in total had 22 shots with six on target yet failed to score. 

Despite the score line suggesting Spurs won easily enough, the reality was quite different. The teams were separated by just 0.4 expected goals and close contests have been par of the course in this head-to-head. 

None of the previous six league meetings were settled by more than 0.8 expected goals and only one of the last seven at Old Trafford was too. Despite United’s only draw this season being the goalless game at Anfield in which they conceded 34 shots, everything points towards this match being close. Let’s sit on the fence and take a draw. 

Man Utd vs Tottenham Tip 1: Draw – 3/1 with Betway

Corners galore

If you could choose your ideal Premier League match up upon which to place a corners bet, this would probably be it.

United top the division for total corners per game with 12.4, while Tottenham are just 0.2 behind them in second place. Erik ten Hag’s side are also joint top for matches which have paid out on over 11.5 corners.

Their record at Old Trafford is a huge part of this record, with eight of the 10 league matches held there this season seeing at least 12 corners. Even those which didn’t saw nine, and Tottenham’s last eight away matches have all hit double figures.

With six of the last eight meetings of these teams seeing at least 11 corners, the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Pedro Porro look set for a busy afternoon of corner taking. 

Late drama on the cards

With top flight referees playing more stoppage time than we have seen in the past there have inevitably been more late goals as a result. 

Across the last five seasons, 23.4 per cent of Premier League matches saw both teams score in the second half but that has risen to 31.3 per cent in 2023/24.

Tottenham were already above average for this and are the leading side since the summer of 2018 for being involved in games where both sides have scored after half-time. It has also occurred in five of their previous eight away games, and in the other three one of the teams scored in the second half.

While both teams have scored in the second half of just two of United’s 20 league games this term, nine of their last 10 goals at Old Trafford have occurred after the interval. This game might take a while to get going but there should be at least one goal for each side in the second half. 

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Andrew Beasley is a widely published football writer and voluntary numbers enthusiast. His love of stats provides him with a wealth of insight which can be applied to betting. He provides football betting tips for The Independent.