Chelsea vs Man City prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League match Sunday
Chelsea must take stock of their wild result last weekend and move forward as they host defending Premier League champions Manchester City at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.
The Blues beat Tottenham in a memorably bonkers 4-1 result in North London last Monday, but the narrative around the game was not nearly as positive. Chelsea were repeatedly one slip from conceding to nine-man Spurs, and even hat-trick hero Nicolas Jackson was struggling with bad misses before his late double to put the game away.
With that in mind, they will need improvement as they take on the most formidable opponent English football currently has to offer. City are three-time defending Premier League champions, reigning European champions, and lead the league yet again, sitting a point atop the standings through 11 matches.
Chelsea's last win moved them into 10th, their third victory in their past five games, showing signs of a turnaround. A result here would see their fortunes considered vastly improved, but defeat could remind them of their place in the current Premier League echelon.
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Chelsea vs Man City match facts
- Date: Sunday, November 12, 2023
- Kickoff Time: 4:30 p.m. local (11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT)
- Location: Stamford Bridge (London, England)
- Official: Anthony Taylor
- Last meeting: Man City 1-0 Chelsea (May 21, 2023 | Premier League)
Chelsea vs Man City prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Man City (-125)
- Score prediction: Chelsea 1-3 Man City
Chelsea look much improved over the last few weeks, but they are still a very flawed side. There are still gaps in their squad, and it will be difficult for them to keep a lid on a Man City side bursting with quality from every corner.
In both of Man City's adverse results in Premier League play this season, they produced more expected goals than their opponents. Dropped points happen, but it's just silly to pick against Man City regardless of the stage and opponent, and these odds are quite friendly for such a juggernaut.
Chelsea vs Man City: best bet
- Pick: Man City +1 goal handicap
- Odds: +135 (DraftKings)
Chelsea looked completely out of sorts against Tottenham, even when a man — or two — up for a long stretch of play. The Blues ran away as 4-1 winners, but it could have turned out differently for them if a few bounces had gone Spurs' way.
City won't be nearly so generous. Jack Grealish is a bench player for this City side, and he just tore Young Boys apart in Champions League play in midweek. Whether Grealish earned a start in the league or Pep Guardiola goes back to Jeremy Doku, Chelsea will be up against it either way. Plus odds here to back such a talented side are too good to pass up.
Chelsea vs Man City prop bet
- Pick: Moises Caicedo to be booked
- Odds: +160 (FanDuel)
- Pick: Conor Gallagher to be booked
- Odds: +165 (FanDuel)
- Pick: Chelsea over 3.5 yellow cards
- Odds: +180 (FanDuel)
Backing Chelsea to see the referee's ire is a great way to play this match. Manchester City are adept at drawing yellow cards: they've won 124 fouls this season, which ranks 11th in the Premier League, and yet have brought about 38 yellow cards to opposition players, the most in the league by a significant margin (next highest is Brighton & Hove Albion with 32).
On an individual basis, Moises Caicedo and Conor Gallagher both have a good chance of being the ones to see a caution in this match. They are the two Chelsea players who have committed the most fouls this season in league play, and while they've only combined for three cautions, Man City's propensity to earn opponents a booking could see these two midfielders earn the yellow cards they've often avoided.
